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You are here: Home » News » Jesuit Schemes by Nation » Afghanistan » The US Withdrawal Isn’t the End of the War in Afghanistan

The US Withdrawal Isn’t the End of the War in Afghanistan

July 8, 2021 4:59 PM By New Eastern Outlook Leave a Comment

Originally published by Journal-NEO.org/.


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Even through the US/NATO forces have largely withdrawn from Afghanistan, and the Taliban (banned in Russia) are increasingly advancing towards the northern provinces to expand and consolidate their rule, war in Afghanistan is highly unlikely to end in the coming weeks and months.

Whereas a number of Afghan militias have vowed to ally with Kabul to resist the Taliban, and Ashraf Ghani has also threatened to launch a counter-offensive against the Taliban, civil war in Afghanistan will only be one dimension of the crisis looming large over a country that has been experiencing non-stop bloodshed since the 1980s. The war, even after withdrawal, is going to retain its international character. As it stands, the US, even after a formal withdrawal from Afghanistan, is taking concrete steps to ramp up its war post-withdrawal. It has been over a month since the US first announced its intentions to establish military bases around Afghanistan (Central and South Asia) to support Afghan security forces in their war with the Taliban. In this behalf, Washington recently announced that Qatar will host a US base dedicated to the latter’s Afghanistan operations. Pakistan, while it has refused to provide any military bases to the US, has confirmed that agreements signed with the US in 2001 for ground and air access for the US military remain valid and operational.

Washington recently announced that the commanding US general, Austin Miller, will stay in Afghanistan for “at least a couple of weeks” to help transition the American mission from active combat to “new objectives.” A pertinent question, in this behalf, is: what are the new objectives? A recent glimpse of these “new objectives” came when the US invited foreign ministers of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to Washington to discuss with them prospects for US military presence inside their countries. In his meeting with his Uzbek counterpart, Antony Blinken noted “the United States’ desire to deepen its strategic partnership with Uzbekistan”, adding that “Uzbekistan’s continued support for a just and durable peace settlement in Afghanistan” remains crucial. The purpose of these new and multiple military bases will be to, as the Pentagon confirmed, allow the US to carry out air-strikes as and when needed.

Accordingly, General McKenzie, Miller’s successor, will assume at least through August the same authorities General Miller currently has to carry out airstrikes against Al Qaeda, ISIS (terrorist ogranizations, both banned in Russia) and Taliban fighters. As McKenzie confirmed, the US will carry out air strikes whenever any attack plans are discovered to strike a) the US homeland, b) US allies (NATO), and c) US partners (Kabul and Pentagon contractors).

A New York Times report recently said that the US is considering extending the current contract for about 18,000 Pentagon contractors to continue to provide support and services to the Afghan security forces, including the air force.

As such, there is no appetite in the US to just end the so-called forever war in Afghanistan. On the contrary, with a large number of warlords and private militias now emerging on the horizon to resist an outright Taliban victory, it is quite possible for the US to extend its support to these groups along side Afghan security forces to fight a hybrid war in Afghanistan post-formal-withdrawal. The US, in other words, is tacitly moving towards a mode of warfare it has been following in Syria for quite some time, where it deliberately supported, and continues to support, militias (Kurds) against Damascus to prevent the latter from establishing its full control in Syria. In Afghanistan, Washington will be pursuing a similar objective i.e., preventing the Taliban from regaining complete control of Afghanistan.

Unlike Syria, however, the US will have a ‘legitimate’ presence in Afghanistan, as Kabul will be happy to ‘invite’ the US to play a supportive role vis-à-vis the Taliban. The situation clearly indicates that the US, as also NATO, are looking to remain as the leading players on the Afghan chessboard, not willing to leave the space open for the Russians and the Chinese to claim.

But can the pull this off? A more pertinent question is: can the US defeat the Taliban through a presence outside of Afghanistan and achieve a goal it was unable to achieve through twenty years of direct war?

While the US itself may not be looking to hand the Taliban an outright defeat (which is anyway not possible now), it remains that the US options to continue its war in Afghanistan and maintain a strong military presence in Central Asia will be resisted and detested by the Russians and the Chinese alike. It is common knowledge that Russia will be using its influence in Central Asia to prevent the US from establishing an open-ended large military presence.

The US, however, is not unaware of this possibility. As Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said, even without a presence in Central Asia, the US has an over-the-horizon capability to assist the Afghan military, referring to the bases and US Navy ships in the Gulf. “There’s not a scrap of earth we can’t hit”, Kirby said.

As such, while Russia and China have their reasons to be concerned about the situation developing Afghanistan due to an irresponsible US withdrawal, and how the conflict could spill over in the Central Asian States (given the Taliban have already reached Tajik border forcing over a thousand Afghan troops to flee to Tajikistan), there is equally no desire to have a US military presence in the region. On the contrary, Russia and China will be more comfortable presenting themselves as better alternatives to the US military presence in the region. Already, the Russians have started beefing up their military hardware in what is called Russia’s Southern Military District. The air defence capabilities of the Russian base in Tajikistan are being strengthened, including with deployment of the newest Verba portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS). President Vladimir Putin had a call with Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmanov last week where he pledged all Russian support to strengthen Tajik defence capabilities, especially in the wake of the brewing trouble in Afghanistan.

However, even though the US may have limited options at this stage to transform its direct war into a long-term or a permanent hybrid war, there is no denying that Washington is searching for ways to achieve the said objectives. Its new base in Qatar has already set the stage for the war to come.

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Author: New Eastern Outlook

New Eastern Outlook provides a fact based alternative to mainstream news media sources by inviting independent experts and journalists writing on international politics, economics, law, oriental studies and culture to have their original articles published as permanent NEO contributors. New Eastern Outlook publishes exclusive content only.

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  • saira khan on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”I agree. Rational thinking
  • Marques on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”There are numerous prophetic voices talking about this. This is not the only year for wealth transfer, but I believe we will see a lot of the wealth transfer take place after DJT is restored this year…
  • Lewis Louis Esq. on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Bo Polny did: https://qrco.de/bd1VRq
  • Glenn Clark on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Thank you Maria for taking the time to share your posts. God has given me confirmation that you indeed hear from Him and so I'm thankful He is using you as his precious vessel to share His thoughts, w…
  • Larry in Alaska. on In my dream, I saw what seemed to me to be a tsunami wave.I agree, thank you Marcio.
  • Phil on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Who predicted 2022 was the year of the great wealth transfer? I didnt hear 2022 being named as the year before
  • Phil on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Stock market is likely to take a big hit after Germany industry stops and their power plants cant get the natural gas replacements without using Russia. End of summer would be my guess. A BTC crash to…
  • Fionnola Morris on Prophetic dream shows Trump returning to U.S. presidencyThe only leader I believe in is the Lord Himself. Certainly, while Pres Trump did facilitate the development of the mRNA injections, he also tried to reform, restricted abortion, funded black universi…
  • Fionnola Morris on I heard the words “Small World War”.No human being and none of the nations of the world are ´’righteous’ in or of themselves, only through the blood of Jesus: moreover, the only difference between the sheep and the goat nations is that…
  • Edg on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”I think the Big Crash for the Stock Market is Soon this year just before J P B passes away then God brings Trump back this year 2022 and btc Crash to Zero is Before the Stock Market Crashes and thats…
  • Edg on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Amen 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🇺🇸 Shalom 🇺🇸
  • Edg on “Barrenness is being broken off of the life of many who have not been able to bare fruit or to produce seed!”Amen 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
  • jimparsey on I heard the words “Small World War”.Yes, even I commented something about z3 few days ago on Telegram and he blocked me. Impatience, Anger are qualities of Devil. May lord free him from the clutches of evil and show him the right path.
  • Undisclosed on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”nice find
  • William on I heard the words “Small World War”.We are all on the potter’s wheel brother. We all have rough edges that need smoothing.
  • Anthony T. on God is turning America now in its pathwayThank you for sharing this, Susan. If we take 40 weeks as average for a pregnancy and add 3 weeks to the date of your dream which was on May 18, we come to June 8. As no one knows the date or the hour…
  • Joe on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Genetically Modified Strain Of Monkeypox Kills 250 Million People In War Game Simulation Prompting New Pandemic Warning - GreatGameIndia Is this the event that causes crypto crash in July. The dates g…
  • Liliane on “I will complete My promise to My Chosen…”Thats so beautiful William! I believe in faith this will come to pass :) Some things only God can come up with.

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Remnant: The Righteous Remnant Now Arises by James Bailey

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