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You are here: Home » News » Jesuit Schemes by Nation » Afghanistan » The Extended Afghanistan Peace Troika: US, Russia, China, Pakistan

The Extended Afghanistan Peace Troika: US, Russia, China, Pakistan

August 5, 2021 8:57 AM By Centre for Research on Globalization Leave a Comment

Originally published by Globalresearch.ca.


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India’s and Iran’s refusal to participate in the Extended Troika on Afghanistan alongside Russia, Pakistan, China, and the US due to New Delhi’s reluctance to publicly talk to the Taliban and Tehran’s disagreements with Washington means that this peacemaking structure will always remain incomplete even though it’ll still likely manage to accomplish most of its goals without them.

The Extended Troika comprised of Russia, Pakistan, China, and the US is arguably the world’s most important peacemaking structure at the moment considering the pivotal role that it’s playing in shaping the future of Eurasia upon the US’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of August. These four countries are coordinating their efforts to facilitate a political solution to the ongoing Afghan Civil War even if their interactions are imperfect and a tangible outcome has yet to be achieved. All four of them are finally on the same page with respect to their shared geo-economic vision for post-war Afghanistan related to the landlocked country functioning as the irreplaceable transit state for advancing Central Asia-South Asia connectivity.

Russia hoped that India and Iran would also join this structure due to the stakes that they have in Afghanistan’s future, but this has yet to happen due to New Delhi’s reluctance to publicly talk to the Taliban (which is a precondition for participation) and Tehran’s disagreements with Washington. This means that the Extended Troika will always remain incomplete. India will consequently have difficulty ensuring and expanding its entrenched economic interests in Afghanistan just like Iran will struggle to do the same as well as defend its security interests there too. By voluntarily declining to take a seat at the table where all relevant stakeholders are determining this interconnected region’s future, India and Iran are depriving themselves of opportunities.

In their leaderships’ minds, they’re apparently prioritizing optics over substance after calculating – whether rightly or wrongly – that it’s better to maintain their images than risk the potential soft power consequences connected with backtracking on their present policies of pertinence. To explain, India wants to show the world that it’s consistently opposed to the Taliban, which its Hindu nationalist government insists its an irredeemable terrorist group. Iran, meanwhile, doesn’t want to discuss anything with the US even in a multilateral framework until bilateral ties first improve since it’s concerned that doing otherwise might project an image of weakness when it comes to the nuclear talks and other seemingly more pressing issues for it such as Gulf security.

The emerging situation is such that India’s and Iran’s voluntary decisions to remain outside the Extended Troika place them in a position to act as spoilers to the Afghan peace process. Nevertheless, the likelihood of them successfully perpetuating the ongoing civil war there for any significant length of time is low. That’s because the Taliban controls a sizeable length of the country’s borders, Iran’s new principalist (“conservative”) government might also understandably feel uncomfortable facilitating the Indian Air Force’s overflights through its airspace to continually resupply US-backed Kabul, and New Delhi might rightly wager that the expected costs of such a campaign far outweigh the expected benefits. Even so, this is a scenario that shouldn’t be totally dismissed.

Part of the reason why Russia presumably wanted both of them to participate in the Extended Troika was to reduce the chances of this happening. If India and Iran felt empowered by this peacemaking structure and were confident that it could most effectively ensure their respective interests, then they’d be less likely to speculatively contemplate various ways to unilaterally (or perhaps even jointly with one another) promote their goals at others’ possible expense. Regrettably, neither of their leaderships want to risk the potential soft power consequences connected with backtracking on their present policies of pertinence. So long as they don’t meddle in Afghanistan, though, then none of the Extended Troika’s members have much to worry about.

In the event that one or both of them end up doing something disruptive, then they might worsen their ties with all four of that peacemaking structure’s members. The US might not be too concerned for the short term, especially if India’s responsible for stirring up trouble, since such a development would temporarily offset its Russian and Chinese rivals’ connectivity plans though as at the expense of America’s own. Be that as it may, the US can strategically afford to delay the Central Asia-South Asia integration process for the time being since the interim period of uncertainty would be more counterproductive to those two’s interests than its own, but this destabilizing scenario would still stand no choice of materializing if India and Iran joined the Extended Troika.


This article was originally published on OneWorld. Then by Globalresearch.ca.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Author: Centre for Research on Globalization

The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) is an independent research and media organization based in Montreal. The CRG is a registered non-profit organization in the province of Quebec, Canada.

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  • saira on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangeI dont,,Im wondering the name Connie but I could be wrong. He didnt know where to put the dream so he posted it on a topic that wasnt relevant but it was a very interesting dream it indicated what wou…
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  • Derek on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)I don't think its a negative sentiment. Many lost 99% of their monies and it can drop more from here. It's only when you see things as is, you learn and grow, not by blind faith.
  • James - Lincoln on “They’re preparing us for civil war.”Couldn't agree more with this, Mena! May you be blessed for sharing!!
  • Ant 🐜 on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Wow, given this negative sentiment regarding RDD and ETN from once committed diehards who once believed, I would suggest that this week is now the absolute bottom and both cryptos are on their way up…
  • Bill F on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Thanks for sharing that mem. "Not by might , nor by power....nor by excellent TA skills...nor by intellectual prowess...but by My Spirit sayeth the Lord!"
  • mem on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)I was the opposite. Didnt give rdd the time of day, because from the fundamentals it was a no go. No dream or vision needed to pass on a bad altcoin Then i had a dream where a person i havent seen sin…
  • Derek on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Yes, that's why I stay away from all these SHIB and LUNC $1 dreams. There is no way the crypto market would reach quadrillion dollars market cap anytime soon, we may hit those probably during financia…
  • faith on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Hi Bill, thanks for your reply. One thing I can share with you and others is from the RDD dreams I read most people do not see a warning when they get it. Bathroom/toilet dreams, anything medical (drs…
  • Edg on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangewell coinbase STOCK has LOST around 75 % of its value since a year ago and they will manipulate the SMALL coins, meme , to be able to keep afloat , or they will o anything to keep them from getting Hi…
  • Edg on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangeLMA O the world's STRONGEST currency . . . nice joke it is also been Manipulated to be where it is as of today
  • Just Another Brother on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangeBut this is artificial because the west stops them from paying in the bond denominated western currency, instead they pay in ruble. It might be considered a technical default, but it's imposed on them…
  • Just Another Brother on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Thank you Bill for your encouraging post. I too have been around since back when ETN became hot and I bought at 6 pence. I've been in and out multiple times since then, and likewise with RDD. I have m…
  • MattNZ on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangeJUST IN: Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918. @GeneralMcInerney
  • Phil - Sydney on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Good post . Yes. It’s a long hard road RDD has been a very slow ride down. Too late to sell so I’m in for another 2 years if it takes that long to reach $1 or $2.10. God bless everyone. Instant riches…
  • Two cents worth on Rockefeller Medicine: A Poisonous Illusion?Allopathic medicine is "Rockefeller" Medicine. Here's a humorous video about allopathic medicine, though the reality is very dark... In a time when US citizens are spending far more for "healthcare" t…
  • Bill F on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)Thanks for this input Faith and good to hear from you. I too am a veteran and have been around Z3 since the RDD revelation and before. It has been an "interesting" process indeed. And I also lost mone…
  • faith on Recent prophetic dreams show prices for Electroneum (ETN)I was around Z3 when the plethora of RDD dreams occurred during the time frame you mentioned. At first, like many others, I bought the coin. Shortly thereafter, the Lord warned me away from it. Prophe…
  • Glenn Clark on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangeThanks Derek for those details. Yeah I think the increased fees are almost certain which will turn a large number of users away. Their current fees aren't exactly the lowest of exchanges so I'm guessi…
  • Derek on Prophetic dream warns of trouble ahead at Coinbase crypto exchangeCoinbase made huge profits in 2021, and last quarter earnings were really bad. They laid off 20% staff, rescinded offers. They will layoff 30% more by EOY. Coinbase charges 3% fee, where as pro charge…

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