Whether or not lockdowns, shutdowns and other restrictive measures can work to lower the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths has been a topic of great debate since early 2020. As health experts look at global statistics, they have been stymied by the low rate of infection and death across the sub-Saharan African continent,1<\/span><\/sup> compared to industrialized nations that used various lockdown procedures to contain the spread.<\/p>\n Across the world, countries have taken different approaches to address the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In one short documentary released by CAN films, they compare the COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland and Sweden.2<\/span><\/sup> By March 2020,3<\/span><\/sup> Scotland had implemented strict lockdowns and closed schools and other social venues. People were threatened with police fines if they went outside other than to exercise once a day, go to work or buy food.4<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n On the other hand, Sweden handled the pandemic differently than most of the globe and was initially vilified for looser restrictions and a lack of severe lockdown measures.5<\/span><\/sup> In October 2020, TIME called the response a “disaster,”6<\/span><\/sup> but data have shown that the death rate in Sweden was in line with other years.7<\/span><\/sup> In other words, excess deaths that may have been attributed to COVID-19 were minimal.<\/p>\n Information compiled by CAN films showed the response in Sweden, which has nearly double the population of Scotland, had significantly less impact on the economy and health of their population, as well as nearly half the percentage of excess deaths as did Scotland.8<\/span><\/sup> Scotland had three lockdowns, 64 school closures and a 54% increase in weight gain, while Sweden had no lockdowns, no school closures and zero weight gain.<\/p>\n Over the Thanksgiving 2021 break, media outlets broke the news of a new COVID-19 variant, dubbed Omicron, that was identified in South Africa.9<\/span><\/sup> This variant is different in that doctors are reporting \u201cunusual,\u201d but mild symptoms, with fatigue being the most common complaint. In response, the rest of the world immediately instituted travel bans to and from South Africa.<\/p>\n Interestingly, the steps taken in Africa throughout the pandemic have varied depending on the country, yet the infection and death rate were relatively stable and low across the continent.10<\/span><\/sup> Over the last year there have been reports of small areas in the world where the number of infections, deaths or case fatality rates have been significantly lower than the rest of the world.<\/p>\n For example,11<\/span><\/sup> India’s Uttar Pradesh State reported a recovery rate of 98.6% and no further infections. On the other hand, the entire continent of Africa appears to have sidestepped the massive number of infections and deaths predicted for these poorly funded countries with overcrowded cities.<\/p>\n Early estimations were that millions would die when the pandemic swept across Africa. However, that scenario has not materialized. According to AP News,12<\/span><\/sup> less than 6% of the continent is vaccinated and for months, the World Health Organization has called Africa “one of the least affected regions in the world.”13<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n In a busy crowded market outside Harare, AP News spoke with Nyasha Ndou, who carries a mask in his pocket. Hundreds of other people, mostly unmasked, were in the marketplace. Ndou explained the mask in his pocket:14<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n “COVID-19 is gone, when did you last hear of anyone who has died of COVID-19? The mask is to protect my pocket. The police demand bribes so I lose money if I don’t move around with a mask.” <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n According to data from WorldoMeter, the population of Africa15<\/span><\/sup> makes up 17.46% of the world’s population16<\/span><\/sup> Yet, AP News reports that the WHO data reveal deaths in Africa are 3% of the global total, while deaths in countries with better health care are much higher, such as 46% in the Americas and 29% in Europe.17<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n Nigeria has the highest population in Africa and the government has recorded just 3,000 deaths in the 200 million people who live in the country. In the U.S., AP News reports there are that many deaths every two or three days.18<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n Across the world, countries and communities went into lockdown to supposedly help “flatten the curve” and slow the spread of the virus. Lesotho, the southernmost landlocked country in the world and surrounded by South Africa, locked down their country and their borders before a single person got sick.19<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n In March 2020, the country declared an emergency, closed the schools and went into a three-week lockdown. In early May, the lockdown was lifted, and the country recorded its first confirmed cases. The BBC reported in October 2020 that in a country of 2 million people they recorded 40 deaths in five months and approximately 1,700 cases.20<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n That number rose to 4,137 cases by January 2021 as citizens from South Africa were crossing the border during the holiday season.21<\/span><\/sup> In addition to border crossings, the government had been releasing people early from quarantine over cost concerns.<\/p>\n However, experts believe thousands of people had crossed the border illegally because they were unable to afford to pay for their COVID-19 test.22<\/span><\/sup> In response to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in January, the prime minister imposed a curfew on social venues such as bars and nightclubs at 8 pm.<\/p>\n While the quick action that some countries took to lock down their population may have slowed the spread of the virus in the early days, the SARS-CoV-2 is endemic. This means that it is in the environment and no amount of lockdown will eliminate the virus.<\/p>\n It also means that once lockdowns are opened again, the virus will continue to spread, just like flu and cold viruses. Countries like Lesotho that locked down early have experienced infections after the lockdown was lifted. The one advantage to flattening the curve and reducing the number of infections early in the pandemic was that doctors could have used the time to improve treatment protocols.<\/p>\n Dr. Vladimir Zelenko23<\/span><\/sup> and the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance24<\/span><\/sup> are two examples of physicians and physician groups that developed treatment protocols during 2020 that have proven to be successful25<\/span>,26<\/span>,27<\/span>,28<\/span><\/sup> and reduce the number of individuals with severe disease or long-haul symptoms.<\/p>\nSub-Saharan African Continent Has Avoided COVID-19<\/h2>\n
Some Credit Early Lockdowns With Low Number of Infections<\/h2>\n
Factors That May Influence the Infection Rate<\/h2>\n