History has a way of repeating itself. King Solomon wrote, “That which has been is that which will be, and that which has been done is that which will be done. So there is nothing new under the sun (Ecclesiastes 1:9).
Solomon understood every event under heaven, which includes literally everything, happens at an appointed time and season (Ecclesiastes 3:1-8). That means nothing happens randomly or by chance, but right on schedule according to historical patterns, which are often referred to as cycles. Whether we realize it or not, these patterns are continually happening all around us in every area of our life. Examples include our daily sleep cycles, aging cycles, climate cycles, harvest cycles, economic cycles, solar cycles, lunar cycles, tidal cycles, war cycles, and on and on.
This article examines how historical patterns might be repeating right now in the equities market. History shows four of the biggest stock market crashes in the past hundred years all occurred during the Jewish holy days of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, including 1929, 1987, 2001, and 2008. The odds of having so many crashes coinciding with these Jewish holy days is extremely remote. It appears to be another way God reveals Himself to the world as the one who is sovereign over the affairs of men. Only God could orchestrate the countless investment decisions made by millions of investors throughout the world to bring markets crashing down precisely on these dates, yet it has happened repeatedly.
Could it happen again in 2016? If there is going to be a market crash in 2016 and if the historical pattern is repeated, the Jewish holy days are strong possibilities and they are coming soon. Rosh Hashanah 2016 is only three weeks away, starting at sunset on Sunday October 2 and ending at sunset on Tuesday October 4. Yom Kippur 2016 follows ten days later, starting at sunset on Tuesday October 11 and ending at sunset on Wednesday October 12.
The last major crash of the stock market started on Rosh Hashanah 2008. Now we are seeing some similarities between 2008 and 2016. As shown in the graph below, both years moved sideways in August and early September, then both showed a small drop in early September. Last Friday’s 394-point drop matches a similar drop 344-point drop on September 4 2008.
Seven Things To Expect if 2008 Pattern Repeats:
The following list shows seven things we might see happening over the next few weeks if the remainder of 2016 follows the pattern from 2008.
First, we would see a fast and full recovery from last Friday’s sharp drop (Note: I originally wrote this yesterday before seeing the today’s 239-point rally in the Dow). The drop continued this morning for a total of about 450 points. In 2008, the recovery only took two days. So we might see the Dow climbing back up another 175 points in the next day or two.
Second, immediately after recovering from the 450-point drop, we would see another similar drop, about the same size. In 2008, it was a one-day drop on the very next trading day, so that might happen around September 14-15.
Third, after dropping back down again, we would see another fast recovery. In 2008, it happened in two trading days, but only recovered about two-thirds of the drop, so we might see that on about September 15-16.
Fourth, immediately after those two smaller drops and recoveries, we would see a much larger drop, which I believe is the second hangman (see dream shared by Z3 contributor Jim Reeve), starting on about Monday September 19. In 2008, the Dow dropped 7.1% in three trading days. Assuming the drop begins at about 18,350 and drops by the same 7.1%, the Dow would reach 17,047, which would be about a 1,300-point drop.
17,047 is close to the Brexit low of 17,063 and a return to that level fits several prophetic insights, but as always it is subject to interpretation because we only see in part (1 Corinthians 13:9).
Personally, I have not seen any numbers for the second hangman, but I saw a graph showing an inverse EFT (UVXY) shooting straight up like a rocket after a period of sideways movement with some small bumps along the way. UVXY moved sideways during the month of August. It has become a little more volatile in September, but if we see the two drops listed above with recoveries from each of them, the net result would be more sideways movement for UVXY with some bumps along the way. So the 2008 historical pattern fits with what I saw.
Fifth, after the second hangman, we would see an immediate and full recovery beginning on about September 22. In 2008, the rebound happened in just two trading days. With a Fed meeting scheduled for September 21, the timing of this miraculous recovery would make them look like heroes. What a coincidence that would be!
A few months ago, Z3 contributor J M shared a prophetic dream in which he saw Fed Chairman Janet Yellen throwing a Whole Foods grocery bag over her shoulder. In other words, the Fed was carrying the market on their back. A rebound like this could be the fulfillment of what he saw.
Sixth, after the two-day recovery from the big drop, we would see the market drift virtually sideways for about a week before starting an even larger drop, which would be the start of the third hangman. If we see a similar one-week period of sideways movement this year, the drop would begin on about September 29. In 2008, the market dropped 7% (777 points) in one day, hitting bottom at 10,365. In 2016, a 7% drop starting at about 18,350 would hit bottom at 17,065, which is close to what I saw in a vision earlier this year. I saw a line graph dropping almost straight down. In the right axis I saw the number 16, which I interpreted to mean the Dow would drop below 17,000 before bouncing.
Seventh, following the steep 7% drop in 2008, the market dropped another 24% over the next two weeks, finally hitting bottom at 7,882 in intraday trading on October 10 2008. If we see a similar two-week drop, it would begin very close to Rosh Hashanah, which starts at sunset on October 2, and end a few days after Yom Kippur. If we see a similar size drop starting from the bottom of the previous drop (17,065), the Dow would hit bottom at 12,969. In a separate vision earlier this year, I saw a line graph showing a steep drop. In the right axis, I saw the number 11, which I interpreted to mean the Dow would drop below at least briefly below 12,000 into the 11,000 range. So perhaps the drop starts from a lower point, or it is larger than 7% on the first day, or it drop more than 24% during the following two weeks.
Conclusion:
For now, this is just a fun exercise speculating on what would happen if we repeat the sequence of events from 2008. This is not a word from God and definitely not a recommendation for investing. It is merely providing insights into historical patterns, so it is something to watch and see what happens.
If the first few steps listed above start happening, it would give more weight to the possibility that all seven steps might happen. In that scenario, this information would be a valuable guide for traders during the coming crash.
On the other hand, if the steps don’t happen, then 2016 might follow a different historical pattern. Another possibility is the timing of the 2016 crash might be triggered by Yom Kippur rather than Rosh Hashanah, which would push the dates back by a couple of weeks hitting bottom in late October. Another possibility is no market crash happens in 2016.
Historical patterns can be very helpful, but they are even better when confirmed by prophetic insights. The two working together provides a more complete picture.
Thanks to my friend Aaron Brickman for sharing this historical data with me. Aaron is a businessman and market investor who successfully traded the crashes in 2001 and 2008.
Author: James Bailey
James Bailey is a blogger, business owner, husband and father of two grown children. In 1982, he surrendered his life to the Lord Jesus Christ. In 2012, he founded Z3news.com to broadcast the message of salvation by reporting end time news before it happens.
Hmm, something funny going on, DAX was down almost 2% (200 points) last night, now its only down 25 points, also Dow Futures were down 106 points, now they are green +24 points. Plunge Protection Team working hard, something must be about to give, maybe DB about to collapse.
David M,
Was not expecting to see this positive action this morning. As crazy as it seems today is a good day to go short for the weekend. DB puts just tanked because their stock has a miraculous rebound of .72 cents so far.
I hear you Ed, I’m shocked at how fast DAX Futures & DOW Futures went from deep red to green, pure manipulation no doubt. They are trying to keep DB from collapsing, knowing this will crash all global markets. It will be much worse than Lehman Brothers.
David,
I was reading an article by Jim Willie on DB. He said it will be Lehman Bros X5. Germany does not even have enough money to bail them out. He said that the derivative chain could be up to over a quadrillion dollars. There is not enough money in the world to bail them out.
This very well could be what David Wilkerson saw over 40 years ago. Pretty exciting times we are living in.
Yeh – No break of that support TL last night, so its a waiting game. We’re probably looking at early next week now… They’re employing the “Let No Shorts Prosper” strategy today…
John,
We need to change that to “No shorts left behind”. Is there a trader myth of a time period during the day where it’s best to buy and a time where it’s best to sell? I’ve been noticing that the 10:30-11:30 period on PST seems to be pretty active
Ed H/John Smith/Z3,
A rumor that DB has reached a settlement of $5.4 billion with DOJ. It gets better….its a bank holiday in Germany on Monday. The plot thickens…..
currently seeing the choppy part of Jonathan’s graph (which seems to be a 1 month graph). Saw ES@2164.5 last night so don’t be alarmed by today’s price action.
shalom
Phanuel,
So being fined $5.4billion is good news and the stock moves up 15% . How did I get that wrong?
Phanuel,
DB has not confirmed the $5.4 Billion settlement. Nor have any of the news that leaked it out. They have $6.3 Billion in cash to pay it. But many holders of their investments are pulling out. I don’t think we have seen the end of this yet. If no confirmation soon I expect all of the 15% gains on Friday to quickly go away soon
Tuesday could be a wild day for DB
Ed H
I agree and the CEO John Cryan is heading to Washington to negotiate a deal (not a good sign). No deal yet, just a rumor to cook the books. They call it “end of the quarter window dressing”. DB shareholders should be very very worried.
Shalom
Phanuel,
How about DB put holders? I added more on Fri . Even if they pay the $5.4 Billion, that does not change their situation at all. Large funds are leaving to safer places to the tune of 2.6 billion and counting just in the month of Sept.
And it gets better. The G20 voted for bail ins and now bail outs are against the law. The German people are going to get robbed overnight of all their savings and pensions to save this evil system . I hope anyone on here from Europe has already moved their money.
Buckle your seat belts kids, gonna be a crazy ride.
Mike kasten, Z3, Anybody …
Mike,
Interesting post on EW and Andy Pancholi. I’m looking at their offers. However do you have any news on Oil right now immediate term and do you perhaps have a report on what THEY predict for oil. I’m short and have been trusting for a drop but currently in the red and need to make a decision soon to bail out at a loss if the markets are due to go any higher.
GOD Bless.
Looks like David Wilkerson’s prophecy of global collapse starting in Germany could be happening with DB, it’s inevitable. Here’s a good read about DB inevitable collapse. http://yournewswire.com/deutsche-bank-collapse-inevitable-prepare-for-economic-armageddon/
Question: When I go into the “Trade” function in my online Fidelity account in order to sell some shares, it asks me if I want to sell on “Margin” or to sell on “Cash.” Is the only difference that “Cash” settles three business days after the trade and “Margin” doesn’t have the delay. Is there some other pros and cons to each way that I am not seeing? Someone please advise. Thank you.
Bix Weir radio interview 9/28 – 20mins. Worth listening to.
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2016/09/bix-weir-final-collapse-is-happening-now/
Z3: ES futures just slammed down 20 pts, and it looks like that TL resistance from the 9/9 ?& 9/22 tops held. If we close near the lows today, it could set us up for a whopper move tomorrow of maybe 80 to 140 points…. It could be of Brexit magnitude, and maybe even bigger.
John,
Thanks for the update. I sold all my shorts at about 11:30. Will be adding more this afternoon before close. Saw it slowing down so took profits.
Ed H: All we have to do is break about 2138 on ES futures on that lower TL, and we should off and running like a herd of turtles in a rain storm. You can see the lower rail clearly on the 120min. chart below with plenty of room to run according to the MACD. Potential target levels are shown, with the remote chance of even hitting that 1929 if it extends for more than a couple of days on this leg down….
200 dma would also be a good low point and would be around ES 2144 tomorrow.
John,
Futures down right now. Don’t see any problem as of yet to break the 2138.
The turtle races have begun.
I should have added more shorts this afternoon but am still trying to get back on the horse.
Yeh, probably. That’s the issue with going 100% out and not leaving some in play… I think we’ll gap down tonight, and they may make it tough to get on tomorrow, but if the gap it down, sometimes there is a retrace back a bit…. Its looking like it may be a huge day tomorrow from where I sit If not, then huge 2-4 day-er.
John,
I got back in this afternoon. Bought some DB at a lower strike and they went up 100% before close. Also got a small amount of Uvxy it went up as well after I bought. I think DB is going to be the golden goose egg on this drop.
DB Should be the gift that keeps on giving…….Sns
SNS,
I agree. I was just looking at others to short , but DB is the Momma Bear so I’m sticking with that. Looking to add SPXU and SDOW as well as SPY. This weekend could be the big one with China .
Ed: Yeh, I think DB puts would be excellent tomorrow, but that horse has been ridden pretty hard, and it may be time to look to something else soon. UVXY seems like a good bet for this drop. I’m comfortable with my 2100s for this one, as even if it extends, I don’t think it’ll go past next Wednesday before the retrace….
JS, where is your bottom target? TAJ
For this Wave #2 down, I listed a bunch of targets on the above chart. Deciding which one fits best, I’ll have to watch the action unfold tomorrow. If we get the one day complete slam down tomorrow, and we start hit one of the lower targets below 2100, I may think about starting to flipping some higher puts at the close, and especially if we hit the 200 dma or lower. If we don’t get a large waterfall and stay above 2100, then I’ll likely stay locked and loaded and see how it develops next week and see if I can detect increasing momentum (that 9 day cycle time I’ve been watching is due Wed). I don’t think Wave #2 down will be over until we see some sort of panic flush event (which may be tomorrow). Wave #3 down is somewhere in the 1600 to 1250 range, IMO. Best…
Thanks John!
Z3,
Some fun facts about how the Fed is robbing savers blind and most don’t even know.
The banks are borrowing money from the fed so we ,the lucky people can take out loans on stuff we can’t afford or don’t really need.
Gdp just came in at 1.4% they were expecting 1.3% so economy is doing great were growing.
Looked up on Bankrate.com for savings account interest.
Best one was Everbank at a whopping 1.11% return.
A few other banks you might want to consider.
These are the real names I’m not making this up.
Dime community bank. At least your earning dimes 1.10%
Third Federal bank. Why happened to the first two? 0.15%
5 star bank. But it only has a 4 star rating!!!!
0.10%
Citizens trust bank. Just the name makes me not trust them. 0.05%
So the gdp is 1.4% higher to buy goods and services than last year , yet the highest paying bank is at 1.11% . You are losing buying power year over year. Loss is 2.6% For the .05% bank you are losing about 4.38% .
This is how the fed and central banks are robbing the average Americans . Out in plain sight and most people don’t even see it. The only way to protect yourself is to become your own central banker. That line is from Greg Mannarino. He suggests buying Gold and Silver.
Z3: Wave #2 down still looks healthy to me, but tested today at a ES high of 2165.25, which is still well under the Wave #1 retracement high of ES 2172.75. Today is around the middle of that 9 day cycle we’ve been following, and it scored a precise hit on the resistance TL extending down along the highs of 9/9, 9/22, and today, so I would look for the larger part of Wave 2 down move to begin very soon now.
I’d like to see how far we can drop here next couple of days. If we waterfall here into Friday, I’d feel more comfortable with looking at Rosh Hashanah as the potential beginning of the next bounce, but if we just gradually drop down a little by Friday, it could be adding more weight of evidence that we may be following the 08 pattern closer than 87, and we just may not get a sizable big bounce before we crash, but just several day chops like we’ve just seen that would be hard to predict. The 9 day interval from the last important turn date of 9/22 would take us to around 10/4 to 10/.5 to re-evaluate. Of course, any event, large or small could take us into that waterfall I’ve been looking for since 9/22, and it can come at any time now, IMO…. Best….
John,
I hope so. I got faked out today when I saw the markets turn and drop about -45 I shorted a few things. Well it came back and ended up almost 111 points positive for the day. Futures up right now as well. Tough one to navigate for sure.
Yeh, Ed h. Very very tough to navigate this type of chop, and why I’ve just been holding all my shorts through this last 2 day bounce. Remember Brexit? They took us right up until the time they pulled the plug and then whammo, so they’re certainly not making this very easy. I’m still looking for some meat on this bone to come in at any time now, and it could even come as a two day drop similar to the 9/9 mini-waterfall, or it could go much deeper for 5 days down from here to 10/5… I don’t want to flip my high puts until we see something of interest, and its the reason why I’m not going to flip my 2/3 crash puts until end of Oct., as if you go out, they may not let you back in. I think they’re setting us up and making this very difficult to predict. When its time, they’ll yank it down so hard you won’t know what hit These guys must have “Let No Shorts Prosper” tattooed across their foreheads….
John,
“Let no shorts prosper” that’s a great line. They took my shorts last week that’s for sure.
I’m only about 20-30% in right now. I’m gun shy after last weeks spanking. But watching and waiting for an opportunity to get more
Ed h: We should be getting closer to the main event now, although it sure doesn’t seem like we’re that close. Stay on your toes as if the above TL holds on ES futures, we could be rocketing down shortly…
Hey John,
When you state, “but tested today at a ES high of 2165.25, which is still well under the Wave #1 retracement high of ES 2172.75”….Didn’t S&P finish at 2171.37? Doesn’t that qualify for hitting the retracement of 2172.75?
Hello TomP: My prices are based on SnP futures (ES-Dec. contract). Today’s high and tonight’s high (so far) have not busted the high 9/22, and its right at the declining resistance rail (TL). I’d really like to see that hold, and since we’re at that 4.5 interval, I think we have a good shot. Here’s a chart of the TLs.
At some point in time, the fall/winter crash patterns should be kicking in stronger, but I can tell, they’re fighting it with everything they have….
John Smith/TomP/Ed H
Definitely a tricky and turtle hangman. Everytime we think we are there it gets dragged out a little longer. So many twists and turns. This is incredible! It’s almost October and we are still not there. September 28 was negated today (looked promising), so that leaves 10/5 and 10/6. It seems the timeline is getting pushed further back. This endurance test is not a joke!! It further confirms the third hangman is now around end of November/December.
Shalom
Phanuel,
Thanks for your input. Do you believe tomorrow (9/29) is now negated? I was considering that 9/29 & 9/30 could see significant drops moving into Rosh Hashanah and thought it was even more intriguing because it was a Thursday & Friday mimicking the Brexit drop!?
Yes, being short has really taken it’s toll on the ol’ account balance….it will take a, “loaves and fishes” type experience this hangman just to get back to even since Brexit. No problem for Whom we serve and ALL faith is in Him that He will bring this to pass!
Blessings!
TomP
This turtle hangman is such a tease (9/9, 9/23). I’m hoping our 8 am appointment is the end of the hangman or at least a significant drop day. The last meal appointment was June 24, which was biggest drop day of the Brexit hangman. I’m very grateful the Lord gave us a meal time to complete this hangman.
Shalom
TomP & Phanuel – When you look at precisely the same point on the 08 chart, the drop into Ulul 29 (day before Rosh) was a pattern of 3 minor down days, then two very strong up days (but not exceeding the RH shoulder of the Wave 1 down retrace – 9/22 in 016), and then a 100 point one day waterfall into exactly the new moon on Ulul 29 back on 9/29/08. the SnP was about 60% of what is now, so a similar one day waterfall would now be 100/.6 = 166 points +/-. I think they’re setting us up for that type of one or two day waterfall into the new moon, or early next week. I would be VERY SURPRISED to not see a decent move down here before the end of the Jewish year & some debt cancellation on a Jubilee year. The next move could be really kicking off the crash….
John,
I watch a few traders and they are almost saying exactly what you are saying. Many of them are talking about a one day drop larger than any other yet in market history. They are not really backing it with facts but more with the higher it goes the bigger it falls .
I also think the TPTB are going with some type of alternative plan as well. The polls are saying Hillary won , but the numbers are way in favor of Trump. I know the Lords feast are his days , his time table so we will see what’s in store for Monday and next week.
Tom,
Yep that’s all it took.
5 loafs
2 fish
To feed 5000 and still have leftovers.
simple math.
5 loafs x $3 = $15
2 fish x $8 = $16
Feeding average meal $10 X 5000 = $50000
So $31 gets multiplied to $50,000
Sounds like God math to me.
Good Morning Ed,
I’m still laughing at the last minute, “oil deal” that’s really not a deal yet. They stated earlier yesterday morning that they would not announce anything from their meetings until November and then late yesterday afternoon that changed and they then announced that they’ve agreed to, “something” but they have not defined it yet!? Really? Seems to me a last minute effort to find a way to keep the market up as oil is now the prop. Smells to me like desperation……
This could get ugly quickly if Saudi Arabia decides to retaliate in some way now that the vote has passed to allow 9/11 victims to sue them for the World Trade Center bombings. I could see this alleged deal unravelling quickly that will drive oil prices to the basement.
We shall see!
Blessings brother!
Good morning TomP/Ed H
yesterday was the joke … That OPEC deal was a joke. The market is truly on hopium as nothing has changed (regarding oil) over the next 2 months. The enemy really wants to shake us off. I tell you that deal was meant to shake us off. But we are not going anywhere until all of the numbers revealed by the Lord God almighty are fulfilled. In the name of the Lord Jesus Christ.
Amein
I’m standing with you on that Phanuel, in the red with my oil positions but trusting the numbers the Lord revealed will come to pass, Amen ?
Amen Mikey H. I stand with you. I don’t trade oil futures. The numbers are mostly for people like you and Jules etc. I’m with the FAZ crowd and some SPY options. They will come to pass by Gods grace.
Shalom brother
GOD bless you and the family.
Shalom.
Phanuel, there is a discussion here about sadhu, can you chime in on it and make corrections since you saw him in person?
https://z3news.com/w/unleashed-elite-idea/#comment-68333
Hi Phanuel, Do you think oil will drive off the cliff (Ed h dream 9/7 equities market thread) as part of this hangman? Do you think we are 8 trading
days from your 9/26 dream after oil market optics yesterday?
Perhaps Peacheys dream about Executive Condo purchase is a key. Is it possible to ask Peachey to comment
about Condo dream and how it relates to today?
Thank you Phanuel–May the God of peace be with you.
Hi Michael C.
Usually the window starts the day of the dream or the day after the dream. Db is causing problems now. Oil is highly manipulated, but those low numbers will eventually come to pass by the Grace of God. God bless brother.
shalom
Dear Phanuel, Thank you for the explanation about when the window begins. I kinda needed a reminder. I hope your wife and newborn are well!
Michael C
Thank you for the well wishes!
Phanuel,
WOW…even with oil jumping several dollars with that fake announcement yesterday, market is appearing to dump. Note that, Deutsch Bank may be the catylyst as it is now getting crushed!
Yes TomP
some bank runs already
“DB is collapsing”
“A banking crisis is looming”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-29/run-begins-deutsche-bank-hedge-fund-clients-cut-collateral-exposure
shalom
I knew it! I joked some days ago i bring bad luck to the economy of country i go to! Tmrw i go to germany. I am sure it will all collapse while i am there. I wish josephs a lot of blessings tmrw and on!
Chloe, you make me smile. Jesus Christ loves you very much!
Thanks Fred!!! I am glad I made you smile! I am now live from Northern Germany. I just managed to gain internet access and checked the stock. I am totally shocked ? it went up based on some “unverifiable” rumors. Monday is a holiday here so we will see if we have bank-runs. I am going to be in a bit of trouble if that happens but let His will be done! The worst case I will just blablacar my way back down to Italy… Blessings!
Hey Phanuel, Back in April 2016, I heard the Lord say “judgement is coming on financials. Banking system will go first. FAZ”
I’m not seeing a complete system failure because FAZ wouldn’t help us. Only judgement or crisis of some kind that I believe is starting with the fall feast days. I do believe Merkle will bail out DB early into the crisis where we see FAZ going from $46.56 back to $23 as crisis is adverted short term.
Interesting that the Lord has given me permission to sell only half of my FAZ @$46.56 to reposition @ $23. GB
Great Confirmation Gary Lee,
I agree with all the above. Frau Merkel to the rescue!. Did He give you a reason for selling only half of your shares at 46.46?
Shalom brother!
*46.56
No reason Phanuel and that does make me nervous. GB
Hi Gary, so if DB gets bailed out, the bank savings would still be ok until the next total collapse? I wonder how Merkel would do that when there is the EU restriction…..(which is why Italian PM is mad at Merkel because she would not let Italian state bail out monte paschi)
Hi Chloe, Yeah I’m aware of the fall out with Italy and Greece and I’m speculating here. DB may do a bail-in first but loss of confidence would also set off the derivative cascade. So I think Merkle will bail out DB and deal with Italy after the fact. Anything might happen but I don’t think they will let DB fail (yet). It may be why Phaunel sees FAZ @46.56 (beginning of crisis) then a bail out of DB and FAZ goes to 23. But others are seeing FAZ rocket time at the end of Oct and into Nov so a bail out would have to be really soon.
It could also be that DB limps along until Oct/Nov and is the cause of FAZ soaring at that time then a bail out. China being included in SDR basket of currencies on Oct 1st may be the cause of Phanuel’s FAZ numbers near term.
I so enjoy all your comments on Z3, keep them coming Chole. GB
Thank you Gary for the insight! I have to depend 100% on the bank while I am in Germany (on phD scholarship) so this is valuable info! I am leaving for the airport now and I think I should keep some personal cash with me in case of the short term bank run! Blessings!
Chloe, that’s a good idea. What’s your doctoral work In?
Hi SNS, i am doing my last year in computer science, specifically knowledge management area. Very boring stuff! ? if God allows (well more like helps) me, hopefully I finish by August 2017!
Chloe, lets hope your thesis and following inquisition come along better than the second hangman! The more boring the field, the better the pay. 🙂 SNS
I suppose that depends on how many reichmarks merkel will need to cover DB. A lot of derivatives exposure. SNS
Phanuel,
Interesting first 15 minutes of after hours trading….VIX was slammed and cut by 40%. Dropped UVXY .67 cents so far, which returned about 34% of the daily gain!? The good news is, UVXY still had a positive day!
Wondering what they have in store for us tomorrow!? Will gap up S&P? Continue the pattern and just run market back up even higher than the downside today or will it continue downward into the weekend….hhhhmmmm. We shall see soon!
Blessings!
TomP,
the bulls are playing with fire and they are going to get crushed in the short term…Then we all become bulls and ride the wave up 🙂 We still have a ways to go as FAZ closed at 32.62. UVXY and FAZ always drop during the corrective waves (which happened during after hours).
Phanuel,
Agreed. Just a matter of time before the inevitable happens. My comments were more rhetorical in nature/intent. I will go back and look, but I think they did the same thing before Brexit….ie….dropped UVXY the day before. Maybe to control how high it would go on the news. I’ll be watching to see if futures turn dark red before market opens tomorrow.
Blessings and a good night sleep toward you.
Tom,
Brexit time Uvxy spiked $18 before the open on Friday morning.
Here is the case FAZ could have a gap up, could be Monday that’s what I’m thinking.
The Run Begins…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-29/
Tom,
I read the article about how congress vetoed the veto. Obama did not get his way. About time congress stepped up.
I don’t think the Saudis dumping their American assets will do much ;however, if they quite using petro dollars to trade oil it’s big time dollar drop time then. The entire system has been built on oil and the dollar. If that falls apart it’s a game changer.
Ed – Nice :). Equivalent numbers would be $1,000 to $1,612,903 (or x1,613 return).
$1,000 x 11.8 return compounded for 3 consecutive trades is $1,643,032 – perhaps for each of the coming 3 waves lower. If they come.
$1,000 x 4.4 return compounded for 5 consecutive trades is $1,649,162 – perhaps for each of 5 waves, 3 down and 2 up. If they come.
‘…but with God all things are possible.’ Mathew 19.26
Fred,
Yes awesome how the compounding goes crazy. Man 3 consecutive 11.8 returns in a row would be fantastic. Fred today I had DB puts that went to 280% I sold them rebought at lower strike and those went up 100%. Good day to be in line at the bank.
Good work! Had some similar large returns. They’re very possible. The challenge is obviously to be up overall after any losing trades over whatever time period. I’ve some way to go to get to break even tbh. It’s been a very painful learning process from around 2007 with big opposition (and cost) in different ways. Still believing to see His goodness for His glory. The big moves are coming and with them come great opportunity. Keep the faith everyone, it’s coming!
Have some BAC puts ready for this next drop. Plan to close out after this next move lower, wait for a retrace bounce (if it comes) then reset on short side.
Fred,
Me too. I got too aggressive last week and got destroyed. Today I had a 53% overall gain, with only 30% invested. Still down though but a few more of these and ill be back I’m looking forward to some Fred UK option days.
Phanuel – You could be right. To get a good size drop into Rosh Hashanah now, its going to take a 100-140 point waterfall. Since Rosh Hashanah is actually Monday, I’m giving it until 10/3 to 10/5 to prove itself, or the pattern could be delayed. I’m still of the opinion we’re still in a decline, although its testing my patience, until that critical 9/22 high gets busted…
Phanuel,
DB 10/21 11P up 260% and climbing.
Nice Ed H,
I saw a price at 11.70 some days ago but didn’t get puts.
I’m sure they will bailed out soon.
Shalom
They are sitting at $11.42 right now. The worlds biggest bank for the price of 4 happy meals.
Yep by Monday will find out Thier is a German holiday so the banks are close but DB stock will be still trading
Will this news be the catalyst that shifts the market? Will the Saudis retaliate? Good to see congress doing the work of the people and not the President.
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/business/2126
Just for guidance,does anybody here know how to do a calculation on UVXY and its expected price at the second hangman?
Peng,
Phanuel saw a number of 71.17 about two months ago. It may apply to the price of uvxy to sell at that point. When FAZ rise to 46.56 or even rise to 46.00, people can start to sell uvxy.
Thanks William. Unfortunately I won’t be able to monitor the price of the stocks as I am on a different time zone, twelve hours difference. 9 am Est is 9pm in my country. For FAZ, I will just key in to sell at 46.00 before going to bed these few nights and hope that it is done.
Peng,
For FAZ, you can key in to sell at 46.56. We trust the Lord. We trust His number. For uvxy, you can key in 71.17 to sell. I have done some calculation in the past. When faz get to 46.56, uvxy should get to around 71.17.
The moment of faz 46.56 is the best moment to switch the short position to long position. You can pray to God to cause you to wake up to see the moment of His goodness.
Just because FAZ hits 46.56 does not mean you can sell it at that price. I have put in good until cancelled limit selll orders slightly below that price at 46.50. I would be completely satisfied if that transacted. As far as UVXY is concerned, I tried to enter limit sell orders around the $70.00 range, but Scottrade would not allow it, as it too far away from the current trading price. Same for TVIX. Boy have I taken a beating on those two stocks.
Thank you for good advice
Peng: Its simple to monitor the price of UVXY during normal trading hours and get free charts. The quotes are delayed a bit, but free, if you go to http://www.bigcharts.com and then type in UVXY. All you need is a computer with access to the internet. You could get internet access at any Starbucks or many restaurants. Best….;
Peng,
It’s basically an uncalcalatable number. It’s based off the mean of all put and call options and the expiration time decay of all those options based on a one year cycle. I did not even mention the left side of the equation is figured then the square root x100/ left side of the equation taken by its square root / by the seconds left in a one year time period for all options that expire in 16 and 44 days . By the time you do all the math your answer is no longer correct because now more time has decayed. Pretty simple right?
Look up past Uvxy price history. You will see where it has moved and how. Compare the big day moves to other market moves and you will get an idea or its patterns. The day before Brexit was a good day to own it. The opening day for Brexit it spiked $18 . You had a 3 day window to make money. The first day being the best. So if we get a massive move day take your profits and get out. I would not get to focused on hitting a certain number . I would focus more on the daily gain and take profits.