A forecast model published by Deagel.com shows the world’s population level is about to drop for the first time in centuries, perhaps even dating back to the days of Noah.
The further back in time we go, the less reliable the historical records, but the best available records show the world population has only increased with no decreases since at least 1650 AD and perhaps longer. (Source: Census.gov)
According to Deagel, that streak is coming to an end within the next ten years. Their forecast paints a disturbing picture of what the world might look like by 2025. Based on their projection models, they show a population decrease while just about every other forecast shows continued increases.
Deagel’s forecast includes population changes by country, so we can pinpoint exactly where they expect decreases to come from. It also includes changes in economic activity, military spending, and standard of living.
No forecast models are perfect because only God knows the future. So this is not an endorsement of Deagel’s forecast. Their conclusions are being shared here as one piece of information among many others that we can consider as we seek the Lord regarding what actions, if any, we should take to prepare for the future.
Why Should We Care About Deagel’s Forecast?
Like Deagel, the Bible also tells us big changes are coming. The landscape of the world described in the book of Revelation looks very different from the world we see today. All of the prophecies recorded in the Bible must come to pass, which means the world must undergo a radical transformation process before the Lord returns.
According to the Bible, this transition process will include sovereign governments being dissolved and replaced by the formation of a one-world government (Revelation 13:1-5). National boundaries will be replaced by ten kingdoms ruling over the whole earth (Revelation 13:1). Unprecedented calamities will dramatically decrease the world’s population. A time of birth pangs will include wars, earthquakes, famines, pestilence, and mass murder of Christians. It will be followed by a time of great tribulation, which includes even worse events. For example:
- When the fourth seal is broken, a rider on a pale horse releases a spirit of death with authority over one-fourth of the earth (Revelation 6:7-8).
- When the sixth trumpet is sounded, four angels kill one-third of mankind (Matthew 24:1-14, Revelation 6:1-11 and 8:7-9:21).
At least directionally, Deagel’s forecast is consistent with end-time prophecies and provides another confirmation the world has reached the start of this transition process. To my knowledge, it is the only forecast from a secular organization that comes close to agreeing with the Bible. However, Deagel’s forecast might actually be overly optimistic depending on how fast events unfold.
When secular organizations begin to see the changes foretold by the Bible, we should all take note of it because it confirms what we are already sensing, the Lord is coming back soon. It is sad to say many Christians still have no idea what is coming.
In addition to aligning with end-time prophecies, Deagel’s forecast also aligns with what the Lord has shown me in prophetic dreams, specifically for the United States. I shared the details of that dream in my previous post, U.S. Government Planning the Mass Murder of Americans.
Normally, I dismiss forecasts from secular sources because they ignore the warnings of trouble ahead. Just a few years ago, I would have dismissed Deagel’s projections as nonsense, but my views have changed after I received a series of revelations from the Lord starting in 2011.
Another reason why I like Deagel’s forecast is because I don’t see any obvious reason why they would want to lie about it. Sovereign governments are notorious liars because they are run by politicians seeking to make themselves look good. Corporations are notorious liars because they are committed to pleasing their shareholders. By contrast, Deagel is a non-profit organization simply trying to help defense contractors make informed decisions. The more realistic their information the more valuable they are to their readers, so they have a strong incentive to be accurate.
For these reasons, I decided to investigate their forecast further. My findings are listed below.
Here are some facts about Deagel to help assess the credibility of their forecast.
Since 2003, Deagel.com has been online as a defense industry information resource providing product guides for a wide range of military equipment for military defense contractors around the world.
They claim to be a non-profit organization gathering this data in their “spare time.” They might be non-profit, but I find their “spare time” claim hard to believe due to the enormous breadth and depth of their content, which includes the following eleven categories:
- Military Aviation
- Sea Power
- Ground Forces
- Space and Strategic Equipment
- Commercial Aviation
- Air Defense Systems
- Sensors and Electronic Gear
- Power Plants
- Missiles and Ammunition
- Ten Year Forecasts for 181 Countries
- Photo Gallery (includes over 20,000 photos)
For each category they provide a complete up-to-date equipment inventory list for every branch of every military force for every country in the world. In addition, each category includes about 6-12 sub-categories and each sub-category includes extensive lists of equipment separated into current, planned, and retired. Each piece of equipment includes detailed descriptions, photographs, specifications, equipment applications, operator lists, industry sales order history, import and export history by country, product reviews, upcoming exhibitions, maps, and the very latest news articles specifically about each piece of equipment. Despite the vast scope, all content appears to be current with many new articles already posted for this month. The site is very well-organized and easy to use.
A site with this much content would require a large team of people, which means someone paid a high price to build it and is still paying to maintain it. So I don’t believe their claim that they maintain this site in their spare time.
Deagel’s Key Conclusions:
Deagel’s 2025 forecast does not include world totals, but shows country by country forecasts for 181 countries. So I added up the numbers for each country to get the totals for 2014 compared to 2025.
- Total world population will decrease by 466 million people (-7%).
- The only regions of the world showing population growth are Southern Asia (+10%), South America (+7%), Southeast Asia (+5%), and Central Asia (+2%), and Central America (+1%). Population decreases in the rest of the world more than offset these increases.
- The biggest population decreases come from the United States (-80%), Australia (-61%), Western Europe (-43%), and Scandinavia (-41%).
- Total world annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease by $29.4 trillion (-38%).
- Total world GDP Per Capita will decrease by 34%, so most people will have a lower standard of living ten years from now than what they have today.
- Total world annual military spending will decrease by $1.0 trillion (-55%), which is far more than the United States currently spends annually.
- Total world Purchasing Power will decrease by 59%.
- For analysis by country, see my previous posts: Top 10 Best Countries to Live in During the Next Ten Years.
They list their primary sources as the CIA, IMF, United Nations, and the US Government. Last time I checked, the CIA was still part of the US Government, but they listed it separately for some reason. Perhaps it is an important source for them.
Almost as an afterthought, Deagel identifies another source with the following statement: “There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others.”
If Deagel’s forecast came from the sources they identified, we should be able to find similar forecasts published directly by those organizations. So I did some investigating and found forecasts from the United Nations, the IMF, and the U.S. Census Bureau, but all of them show steady increases in population through at least 2050.
- UN data shows the world population increasing by 12% in 2025 and by 33% in 2050 (Source: United Nations).
- The IMF shows the rate of growth slowing to 0.38% per year by 2050, but no decreases in sight. They show the world population reaching 9.1 billion by 2050.
- US Census Bureau population numbers are almost identical to the UN and IMF numbers, as shown in the chart below.
So Deagel’s forecast directly contradicts forecasts from the organizations they claim as sources, including the UN, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the IMF. So there must be another explanation for their dire forecast numbers.
The only other sources they listed are the CIA, other unidentified branches of the U.S. government, and shadow sources. I was not able to find any current population forecasts from the CIA, just a very old report from 2001, which is not even worth considering.
I found economic projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), but again their numbers contradict Deagel’s forecast with continued growth through 2019. I was not able to find any longer range forecasts from the CBO.
Under the assumption that current laws governing federal taxes and spending will generally remain in place, the agency projects that real GDP will grow by 2.0 percent this calendar year, by 3.1 percent in 2016, and by 2.7 percent in 2017, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of the previous year (see figure below). For 2018 and 2019, the agency projects that the economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. In CBO’s estimation, the economic expansion through 2019 will be driven primarily by increases in consumer spending, business investment, and residential investment. (see the full CBO report)
So the true source of Deagel’s dire forecast remains a mystery, but we can narrow it down to either the CIA or their shadow sources. Perhaps they only used historical data from the UN, Census Bureau, and IMF while relying on their other sources for assumptions about future growth rates. In any case, their claim that their forecast is based on publicly available sources is hard for me to believe.
This leads to another question. Why would the CIA or shadow sources reveal their future plans or key assumptions to Deagel or to anyone else? We can only guess about their motives, but history shows criminals are notorious for openly publishing their agendas before they actually implement their plans. It is almost like they can’t help themselves. Maybe they want to be able to take credit for events after they happen. Here are a few examples:
- In 1917, Vladimir Lenin openly promoted his agenda for governing Russia by writing a book, “The State and Revolution”. He then carried out his agenda, overthrowing the government in the October Revolution, which was the beginning of communism in Russia.
- In 1925, Adolf Hitler openly promoted his agenda in his book, Mein Kampf, which means My Struggle, in which he openly promoted his plans to establish a new order, which later became known as the Third Reich, and announced his hatred of Judaism and Communism as the world’s two evils.
- In recent years, shadow figure George Soros has written several books openly sharing his agenda while at the same time acting behind the scenes like a puppet master pulling the strings that control our government leaders. For example, his book “The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror” openly promotes his agenda to achieve an open society (replacing capitalism) and to promote the global warming agenda.
Skeptics (like I was a few years ago) discredit these ideas as conspiracy theories, but when the key players write their plans and publish them, it is no longer a theory, but a well-documented agenda.
I am not suggesting Deagel has any sort of evil agenda. I am only pointing out it is not far fetched to believe shadow figures today could be willing to share their projections, which would certainly be valuable information for the defense contractors served by Deagel. Someone might even be willing to pay for that kind of information.
Deagel’s Forecast Assumptions:
Deagel’s projections have raised concerns from so many people they finally had to post explanations on each of their forecast pages to help answer questions. Here are the main points they posted, which says a lot about the kinds of questions people were asking them:
- They claim they are not a death cult or a satanic cult. I have no reason to think they are.
- They claim they are not an arms dealer. I have no reason to think they are, but as stated above, someone is paying a lot of money for this site. It seems likely it is someone is from the defense industry, but that does not necessarily make them an arms dealer.
- Their 2014 data includes 209 countries, but their 2025 forecast includes only 181 countries. The 2025 forecast did not include North Korea, South Sudan, Somalia, or 25 other very small nations. No explanation was given for that.
- Deagel assumes economic data currently reported by sovereign governments is fake. I agree, but this point seems irrelevant because they maintain the same assumption for 2014 and 2025 so the data is supposedly adjusted in both periods. The dramatic drop in GDP levels cannot be blamed on fake data.
- They assume the collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its population. I agree with that assumption and believe we are now close to seeing the start of that collapse.
- They assume no pandemic or nuclear war. Given the size of their decreases in population, especially in North America, Western Europe, and Australia, I find it hard to believe they are not assuming some kind of pandemic or nuclear war because that would mean hundreds of millions would die either by suicide or starvation. I agree with their assumption that there will be increases in suicide and famines, but I would also include pandemic and war because of what the scriptures reveal plus a host of prophetic warnings.
- The breaking of the second seal releases the rider on the red horse who removes peace from the earth (Revelation 6:3-4). I believe the first seal was fulfilled in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama.
- The breaking of the third seal releases the rider on the black horse who releases famine in the earth (Revelation 6:5-6).
- The breaking of the fourth seal releases the rider on the ashen horse into one-fourth of the earth to kill with the sword, famine, pestilence, and by wild beasts (Revelation 6:7-8).
- They assume a significant death toll caused by a “change in economic paradigm”. They mention suicide as one cause of death, but their numbers indicate much more than that. In the absence of pandemic or war (if we believe that assumption), it sounds like a lot of people dying by starvation, which is consistent with what I saw coming to the United States and also consistent with the breaking of the third seal releasing the rider on the black horse who brings famine to the earth (Revelation 6:5-6).
- They assume large scale migration of people exiting the United States into Latin America and Asia. I also expect to see a big increase in migration from the United States, but their numbers show the population of the U.S. decreasing by 254 million while the combined populations of Latin American and Asian nations only increases by 108 million. Even if we assume all of the increases in those regions are former American citizens, which seems far fetched, their numbers still fail to account for 146 million U.S. citizens. Even though Deagel does not state it directly, their numbers show over 146 million U.S. citizens will no longer be alive in 2025. Deagel’s net population increase (+108 million people) in Latin America and Asia is calculated as follows:
- Central America grows by only about 250,000 people (+1%).
- Mexico decreases by 3.8 million (-4%).
- South America grows by 26.7 million (+7%).
- Southeast Asia grows by 28.2 million (+5%).
- East Asia decreases by 112.3 million (-7%).
- Central Asia grows by 2.6 million (+2%).
- Southern Asia grows by 166.3 million (+1%).
I agree with the overall direction of Deagel’s forecast. I believe it confirms the world has now reached the tipping point, the end of a very long period of growth in the world population. Now a new trend begins with the population going down and likely continuing down at an accelerating rate until the Lord returns.
I also agree with their forecast for reductions in the size of the world economy. Their assumption that economic problems will contribute to the population decreases also makes sense. So we have also reached the tipping point for global economic development. We can expect to see severe economic problems in the next ten years, especially in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan.
For anyone looking to avoid these problems, South America, Central America, and Asia appear to be good places to consider for relocating. It would foolish to base any decisions on this data alone, but perhaps it provides a starting point for further consideration as we seek the Lord about where He wants us to be. Also, see my previous post, Top Ten Best Countries to Live in During the Next Ten Years, which is based on Deagel’s forecasts for specific nations.
Author: James Bailey
James Bailey is a blogger, business owner, husband and father of two grown children. In 1982, he surrendered his life to the Lord Jesus Christ. In 2012, he founded Z3news.com to broadcast the message of salvation by reporting end time news before it happens.
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