David Stockman: Financial Markets Heading Into Perfect Storm

perfect_storm

In an article posted last week, David Stockman predicted financial markets are heading for big trouble in 2017 due to excessive debt levels. He says the chances for success for Trump’s economic plan are slim and none because he is not willing to make the necessary spending cuts.

David Stockman served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under President Reagan and is known as the father of Reagonomics.

“Financial markets are heading straight into a perfect storm of central bank failure, bond market carnage, a worldwide recession and a spectacular fiscal bloodbath in Washington. Investors should be heading for the hills with all deliberate speed.

What is going to stop Trumponomics cold is debt — roughly $64 trillion of it. That’s what is crushing the American economy, and until the mechanics of its relentless growth are stopped and reversed, the odds of achieving and sustaining the 3–4% real economic growth that Trump’s economics team is yapping about is somewhere between slim and none.” (Source: Dailyreckoning.com)

Mr. Stockman then calls out the giant elephant in the room that the mainstream media refuses to acknowledge, the Fed.

“The key to recovery is firing the debt addicted money printers at the Fed, not passing the baton to fiscal stimulators on Capitol Hill.

Yet the latter is about all Trumponomics amounts to — at least as currently presented by the president-elect’s economic advisors. Indeed, notwithstanding all of the candidate’s raging about “draining the swamp,” the only Federal programs he talked about on the campaign trail were the ones he intends to increase or to protect from the budgetary sword.

Trump has already put $3.6 trillion of the fiscal year (FY) 2018 budget off limits for cuts, including Social Security, Medicare, veterans, defense and law/border enforcement. Including interest on the $20 trillion national debt, that’s 86% of the baseline total and it’s before he adds trillions more for defense, veterans, the Wall and border enforcement and his vaunted infrastructure program.

It’s the giant skunk in the woodpile which rebukes the whole fantastic notion currently animating the Wall Street casino that Trumponomics will unleash a powerful wave of fiscal stimulus via tax cuts and infrastructure/defense/veterans/border spending.

No it won’t. The GOP’s Tea Party/Freedom caucus wing will demand “payfors.” The newly aroused bond vigilantes will extract higher interest rates. Uncle Sam’s towering $20 trillion debt ceiling, which expires in March, will delay action for months.

There is no chance whatsoever of a clean, immediate fiscal shock to the moribund U.S. economy fantasized by the Wall Street bulls.

Likewise, there will be no clean and reliable hand-off of the fiscal baton to a new agent of stimulus on Capitol Hill. What that means, in turn, is that the U.S. economy will slip into recession sometime during 2017.” (Source: Dailyreckoning.com)

I believe David Stockman has it right. Excessive spending has brought our economy to the edge of disaster, but Trump’s economic plans fail to make the necessary cuts. Financial markets are truly heading into the perfect storm.

James Bailey

Author: James Bailey

James Bailey is an author, business owner, husband and father of two children. His vision is to broadcast the good news of Jesus Christ through blog sites and other media outlets.

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Ming
Ming
Member
December 16, 2016 12:43 AM

How I LOVE these objective analyses from “D.C. insiders”!
Where were they in the past 8 years? They did NOTHING & say NOTHING against Obama & the Fed’s reckless actions (because they are part of the club)! Now, as Trump is going to lead, these people stand up to play Prophets and Analysts saying it’s not going to work… of course it’s not going to work because the club/Fed holds the exact pin to poke the Trillion-dolloar WMD Derivative Bubble (guess who helps blowing up the Bubble in the first place…) to cause EVERYTHING to collapse to bring out the one world economic system.

Only God Almighty can deliver the poor, the orphans & widows, the weak, the lonely, the “useless eaters”, and HIS children from the coming disasters.
Please pray & seek to hear HIS Instructions! And may the Lord be faithful to carry out HIS Words against the wicked & evil doers (e.g. Proverbs 26:27, Psalm 68:21, Psalm 91:8).

Ed Sain
Ed Sain
Member
December 23, 2016 7:09 PM

David Stockman has been speaking against reckless Obama and the Fed. I have been reading his journalism for eight years, from time to time. Perhaps you are not speaking against Stockman, but others.

I just add a note for readers to have correct perspective of Stockman, regarding Obama and the Fed. Stockman was also derogatory of Trump in at least one of his articles in early 2016.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
January 19, 2017 11:46 PM

Z3: We’ve been flat for basically a month, but the good thing is resistance on ES has held at around 2275, which is good news for the bears. I continue to see buy side interest wane. Although it hasn’t been too noticeable, ES has basically had a pattern of slightly lower tops on the daily bars for around 9 days now, and a sign that things are weakening, and that daily sell indicator on most indices hasn’t abated at all. The start of a real drop has been much slower than I expected here in January, and the optimism in market strength continues to be an amazing thing to watch… I see both DAX and Nikkei as going into a bit of a ST downturn here. US markets have been over-priced based on very optimistic view on a Trump presidency and basically in a “I wish it higher” political honeymoon period. There has also been no doubt in my mind that the downside has also been limited by TPTB, until the commander and chief and NWO representative is out of office, but also various economic indicators, such as unemployment, transports, and the DJTA has improved in the last 2 months, keeping the party going a little longer. So, things are looking good for the next down-leg to begin very soon now IMO, and based on how long its been flat and the distance its risen above where it should have gone, it could be sizable (maybe 150 to 230 ES points) in my opinion. Tomorrow is inauguration day, and I’ll be very happy and relieved to see Trump take the oath. As they say, sell the news. Best to all…..

Sonia
Sonia
Member
December 15, 2016 6:00 PM

James here it is:
“Rising interest rates in the United States have an obvious effect on the world’s biggest economy — but less obvious is the impact those rates could have on the second biggest.

Higher interest rates in the United States could make it harder for China to manage its exploding debt, as the Asian giant increasingly depends on borrowing in order to keep growing — while simultaneously trying to block capital from fleeing for more fruitful shores in America.

“If the Federal Reserve [keeps increasing] interest rates in the United States, the single biggest casualty of that this time is going to be China, because there’s so much money just waiting to leave” the country, said Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Sharma spoke Tuesday evening as part of a panel at the Asia Society in New York.

….percent on the 10-year Treasury yield) by the first quarter” of next year, Rick Rieder, CIO, global fixed income at BlackRock, told CNBC on Wednesday. The 10-year was last at 3 percent in January 2014.
Such moves could become trouble for Beijing, which is already working hard to block capital from fleeing China as its currency, the yuan, declines in value against the dollar. More appealing investment options in the United States are a powerful lure drawing money out of China. (China also is using its foreign currency reserves to buy up yuan in a desperate attempt to keep its currency from plunging.)”

Source:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/14/higher-interest-rates-in-the-us-next-year-could-make-problems-for-china.html

Corrine
Member
December 15, 2016 6:10 PM

Sonia, thanks for sharing this article! Blessings, Corrine

Joe
Joe
Member
December 16, 2016 10:20 AM

Bonds are being massacred in China. Currency is also down. Next stocks?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-16/china-suffers-failed-bill-auction

Sonia
Sonia
Member
December 15, 2016 5:51 PM

Great article James !
I also recall your dream of the U.S. representatives standing up and the elites pushing the table towards the U. S. Representatives which made them fall to the ground and then the Chinese were very upset and declared war….
This week the Fed raised interest rates and promised to raise them 3 times in 2017. I believe we are starting to see the fulfillment of your dream. The US dollar is going higher against the Swiss Franc and we may even see the fulfillment of your Forex dream of 1.35, 1.19 and 1.31 in the next few months.
By the way, I just read an article which explains why China is upset with the U.S. for raising interest rates. It has to do with their debt ratio. I will post the link in my next post.
May God bless you James and thanks for all you are doing for the Kingdom of God !
Shalom !

Fat B
Fat B
Member
December 16, 2016 12:01 AM

The dirty punch comes first though before the 1.35 which hasn’t happened yet. Right?

Rev. James B. Medd
Rev. James B. Medd
Member
December 15, 2016 7:32 PM

Until all major central banks of the world controlled by Jacob Rothschild
are dismantled, destroyed or by taken down by any other means nothing
will change. Major western governments of the world must take back the
power to create money without interest and put it all as it were “back into
the hands of the people where it properly belongs. The private banisters
[banksters] must be removed along with all treasonous politicians, and
also told that ‘NO FURTHER INTEREST PAYMENTS’ will ever be paid.

Bob Adolph
Member
December 15, 2016 8:20 PM

Rev. James, great ideas that will never happen until Jesus Christ arrives and sets up the Kingdom of God. Jesus gave us Donald Trump to expose the corruption and rebellion but he is not the Messiah.

Sephora
Sephora
Member
December 16, 2016 5:55 PM

Sir, I must say that you have hit the nail on the head. The truth is what it is.

Ed Sain
Ed Sain
Member
December 16, 2016 1:48 PM

Creating money without interest is a misformed concept. Money has time value. Creating money without interest is the same as debasing money and stealing from the holders of it.

Though shalt not steal is the biblical edict which is violated by such a false concept as “create money without interest” in anybody’s hands.

Boise Brian
Boise Brian
Member
December 17, 2016 11:39 AM

Seems like a perfect storm is brewing with respect to Trump’s first budget. The RINOs and Tea F-rtiers are saying they will not endorse DJT’s fiscal stimulus plan. Handcuffed so, and being a businessman, Trump will cut spending. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth when POTUS asks Rick Perry to wind down the Department of Energy. Teachers’ Union will go on strike at the threat of abolishing Department of Education. Will EPA be next? Will The Donald’s healthcare plan bring back the 1/6th of the economy that the ACA is dissolving? The globalists’ whining will fail, and DJT will be permitted to execute his plan of economic revival. The debt-increase gridlock will lead to more federal job “stays”, and Mr. Trump will masterfully anticipate this and properly control the narrative (for once). Is it possible that the 2017 Conference of States can produce a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution that is eventually ratified by the States? Let’s hope so. Let’s continue to do our part and focus on the lost and hopeless and trust God to fulfill his Plan in providentially guiding Donald J. Trump and the remaining Patriots on The Hill. Merry Christmas to all and peace to all on whom His favor rests!

Martin Semrok
Martin Semrok
Member
December 17, 2016 4:37 PM

Years ago Dr. James Dobson said it took $10 to deliver $1 to welfare recipients. Rick Joyner speaks of a 10 fold waste likewise.

Sonia
Sonia
Member
January 4, 2017 6:55 PM

Here is a technical analysis summary of what’s to come:
Summary: We’re completing the third wave of the ending diagonal before zigzagging to the top of the largest bubble in history. I expect a sharp drop in wave four of the ending diagonal perhaps later this week. The long awaited bear market is getting closer.
Good trading!
Source:http://worldcyclesinstitute.com/the-disruption-has-just-begun/

Matt NZ
Matt NZ
Member
December 21, 2016 10:25 PM

Folks, consider a Goldmoney account for a portion of your PM investments. Debit card access enables you to transact easily. http://beforeitsnews.com/new-world-order/2016/12/an-easy-way-out-of-the-banking-system-6944.html

Joe
Joe
Member
December 20, 2016 3:02 AM

Before every major financial crisis Australian Dollar fell against US Dollar. Right now Aussie is at the same level as in Sep 2009.

TAJ
TAJ
Member
December 20, 2016 7:02 AM

good to know. thanks

Steve
Steve
Member
December 16, 2016 3:41 AM

Twice in the last couple of years I’ve had dreams about hyperinflation coming soon. In one dream I was shown how a bale of hay would soon cost $20, while another said a dozen eggs would also cost $20. Given the debt levels and the money printing that has taken place it’s becoming easier all the time to see how this could take place.

Ming
Ming
Member
December 16, 2016 8:32 AM

Thanks for sharing your dreams, Steve!

So, how big is the bale of hay in your dream? Because according to one of the comments of this article (http://stablemanagement.com/article/cost-horse-hay-30104), by Candace, 1 year ago, “I use a hay dealer and live in Fairfield County, CT. My latest load of grass hay was $320/ton delivered and put away. Picked up at the feed store hay is $10.00/ 40 lb bale” – so per your dream, a 40lb bale might have double.

As for the eggs, where were you in your dream?? Per https://www.expatistan.com/price/eggs/new-york-city, the price of 12 eggs, large in New York City is $4.39. So, if you were in NYC, the price rose up 5-fold, which might have caused by money-printing-caused high inflation, avian influenza, high transportation cost (War in Middle-East – Oil price crisis), etc.

Thanks be to God – what you dreams described is still far better than what Weimar German or Zimbabwe had suffered (Ten million Zimbabwe dollars will buy a loaf of bread [40 cents in USD] or what Venezuela is suffering right now (please pray for Venezuela!).

When Debi’s dream came true (people using “Benjamins” to collect bird dung in a bird cage), it truly spells the death of the USD bills.

Laura McDowell
Laura McDowell
Member
December 16, 2016 9:27 AM

The Black Horse!

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