Beware of the UVXY Pop-Up Message!

volatility

Last week, I shared an update regarding future price movements for UVXY, which is an inverse ETF based on the VIX volatility index. If you have not yet read that post, please read it before proceeding.

In that post, I shared a vision God gave me showing UVXY moving up to $25 then dropping very sharply and continuing down until the price reached zero. Then a message popped up stating my account funds were depleted with a long detailed explanation, which I was not able to read because I only saw it in a flash. I interpreted the vision as a warning the price would be going very low, but after further consideration, I believe there is more to it than that.

Two things concern me. First, the price dropped all the way to zero, which is impossible under normal trading conditions. If the price was only going low, I don’t believe it would have been shown to me as zero. So something else could be happening here. Second, the disturbing pop-up message also indicated something more was happening than just a low price.

So I dug into it and learned there are regulations in place requiring brokerage firms to halt trading for stocks showing extraordinary market volatility, which is explained as prices below the Lower Price Band or above the Upper Price Band for any National Market System (NMS) Stock. The National Market System is the whole stock trading system, which includes all of the exchanges and markets. This regulation comes from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), as documented in Rule 6190. The following text was copied from their site:

(a) A member that is a trading center in an NMS Stock shall establish, maintain and enforce written policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to comply with the requirements of the Regulation NMS Plan to Address Extraordinary Market Volatility (Plan) and specifically to prevent:
(1) the execution of trades at prices that are below the Lower Price Band or above the Upper Price Band for an NMS Stock, except as permitted under the Plan;
(2) the display of offers below the Lower Price Band and bids above the Upper Price Band for an NMS Stock; and
(3) the execution of trades in an NMS Stock during a Trading Pause; however, bids and offers may be displayed during a Trading Pause, as permitted under the Plan.

The fast price movement of UVXY and SVXY is a double edged sword because it makes them attractive to traders, but it also puts them in danger of trading disruptions if the price gets too low or too high.

It has happened before. The following tweet was sent on June 20 2016 by Vance Harwood from Six Figure Investing.

“Both UVXY & TVIX tripped Regulatory Circuit Breakers today, FINRA Rule 6190. Rule intended to moderate flash crashes. Charts look normal.”

On June 20, UVXY traded at a high of $60.70 and a low of $56.05, which looks like a normal amount of movement. Since UVXY did a 5:1 reverse split on July 25, the actual prices on June 20 were a high of $12.14 and a low of $11.21. It is not clear to me why regulatory circuit breakers were tripped or what disruptions resulted, but the point is regulations are in place to stop trading and it has happened before.

Just like I saw in my vision, the risk of trading disruptions increases as the price approaches zero. Traders should beware of this added risk and should consider alternative inverse ETF’s, such as FAZ, SPXS, and SPXU. Alternatives for SVXY include FAS, UDOW, UPRO, and SPXL.

Since I saw the price moving up to $25, I have confidence UVXY will reach that price without any problems. I believe the vision gave me permission to trade up to that point, but seeing the price drop to zero could be a warning not to trade UVXY after that. If that is the right interpretation, then what I saw might not have shown how the actual price will behave after reaching $25.00 because UVXY could just as easily trigger a regulatory disruption by moving up too fast as it could by moving down too fast.

Two other Z3ers, Phanuel and Peachey, were specifically warned by God to stop trading UVXY, but they were not told the reason. I believe my vision confirms what they heard.

This updated interpretation also changes my understanding of the second hangman. It could be a bigger drop than I was thinking because I am no longer limiting it to UVXY peaking at $25.00. If God was only revealing a specific warning for UVXY, then I can only speculate about how the overall market might behave after UVXY reaches $25.00. One possible scenario is the market follows the pattern from the steep drop in September 2008, which I shared in a previous post. In that example, the market dropped sharply, then reversed back up, then reversed back down reaching new lows. That might explain why Phanuel saw FAZ reaching $46.56. What happens to UVXY after reaching $25.00 would be irrelevant since the warning makes it off limits for trading.

Regardless of what happens in the overall market, I hope we all avoid getting the dreadful UVXY pop-up message!

James Bailey

Author: James Bailey

James Bailey is an author, business owner, husband and father of two children. His vision is to broadcast the good news of Jesus Christ through blog sites and other media outlets.

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Matt Smith
Matt Smith
Member
October 7, 2016 4:22 PM
Here is a message about wealth for the Christian people in the future. This message was posted on my timeline, by someone else, from an African Pastor named Mark Cyril. I don’t know the man, but what caught my eye was his connection to the two Enochs. I never noticed this before. As always, take this word to the Lord in prayer. (Now, the Lord hasn’t confirmed this word to me yet, but I am fascinated by the two Enochs, this is why I osted this.) “And Cain knew his wife; and she conceived, and bare Enoch: and he built a city, and called the name of the city, after the name of his son, Enoch,” Genesis 4:17. “And Enoch walked with God after he begat Methuselah three hundred years, and begat sons and daughters: And all the days of Enoch were three hundred sixty and five years: And Enoch walked with God: and he was not; for God took him,” Genesis 5:22-24. This revelation came to me a couple of months back. It is a very simple message with a broad meaning. The first Enoch was a direct son of Cain. The bible says that he was an inheritor of a city. He was wealthy while the second Enoch was of the righteous seed of Seth. This Enoch had a very strong spiritual heritage and a legacy. He had his foot print on the sand of time. Of him it was said he walked with God and never tasted death. Such a strong spiritual wealth he possessed. Now the Lord said to me, “While the first Enoch represents a generation of physically wealth people who do not know him, the second Enoch represents a generation of spiritual wealthy people who are physically poor. But I AM bringing into one,… Read more »
Sonia
Sonia
Member
October 7, 2016 5:13 PM

Wow Matt ! This is a great word !
Thanks for sharing ! GB !

Michael P.
Michael P.
Member
October 6, 2016 1:30 AM
This makes far far more sense to me. I have not shared this before but I have had a brief dream over a year ago which deeply resonates with me about UVXY at 0. It was very specific – no symbolism, very direct, about a particular stock (not an ETF, and I don’t think this symbol has ever been mentioned on Z3). It has nothing to do with UVXY or TVIX. I was very heavily invested in it long before I even started lurking on Z3. I believed it would do very well during a market downturn. At the time of dream, this particular stock was deep in the red for several months already for me. In this dream (which felt very real, as if I were awake), I saw the price movement of this particular company’s stock on a mobile stock price app I use in real life, as a relatively flat line followed by a very sharp, near vertical downturn, followed by a distinct unmistakable red “0” filling the screen. I remember flipping the stock pane over to show news articles for the company in the hopes of finding the cause of the price crash. I distinctly remember asking myself in the dream did the company go bankrupt? Why did this happen? There was nothing. I don’t know what the news abstracts said. The only thing I know was there was a sudden absolute crash of the price and no explanation what so ever. Subsequent to this dream, a few days later, the stock price moved down several more good percent after which I panicked, abandoned ship, and sold everything at a huge loss. Fast forward months later the stock recovered all its losses and made some multi-year highs with me standing on the sidelines (had I stayed… Read more »
Elizabeth
Elizabeth
Member
October 11, 2016 12:22 AM
Further to my previous post, this is the story I wanted to share: A TRUE STORY ABOUT SPIRITUAL DREAMS (As related to me by a person who was directly involved) A four-year-old boy in a devoted Christian family informed his mother one morning, “Mommy, I had a dream last night that you were going to have a baby, and it will be here in the spring”. The mother had no idea she was pregnant at the time, but after a doctor’s visit, learned that she was, indeed, several weeks pregnant. The baby arrived in the spring. A few years passed, and that same boy reported to his parents one morning: “I had a dream last night, that we sold the house, and were all living in a giant box with wheels”. Although this had not previously been part of their plan, a short while later, they felt compelled by the Lord to sell their home, and moved their entire family (of six children) into a mobile camper, in which they currently live and travel around the country. Fast forward a few years. A family friend, “Ron”, a strong Believer, who also lives and travels in a mobile camper was having dinner with this family one night, and before partaking of a huge pan of home-made lasagna, asked one of the children to say grace. The child prayed: “Lord, please give us wisdom so that no one dies”. Everyone laughed, and one of the parents said a proper prayer for the meal. A few weeks later, the same son who’d had the previous dreams entered the family camper one morning looking for his mother, and broke down sobbing. He was so overcome with grief that and it took half an hour for his mother to settle him down enough to be… Read more »
vicks
vicks
Member
October 6, 2016 9:28 AM

Sometimes we have dreams that resonates our fears on subconscious level. You say that you were in the red for your particular stock, and you had fears that it will go down even lower. So you had that dream of that stock going to zero, which in actual case it went up later on. So my conclusion is your dream was not one of those premonition dreams, but out of worry of your mind. If I could have a dollar for every ‘fear’ dream I had over the years, I would be rich right now. I have ‘fear’ dreams often as a matter of fact, you know, the ones like whatever I’m afraid of end up happening in the dream. Each time I wake up I’m glad it’s just a dream. Thanks for sharing at the right place and time.

Michael P.
Michael P.
Member
October 7, 2016 12:28 AM

Yes, I question that dream many times. It is still vivid in my mind after all those months. Was it fear? Was it an attack by the enemy? Or is it a warning of something yet to come? I don’t know. Had I not experienced this dream, I for sure would not have sold the stock – at the very least kept a good fraction.
But what strikes me personally is the parallel of what I saw and what is described about UVXY. For now, I just pray for understanding of what is to unfold in the near future.

Elizabeth
Elizabeth
Member
October 6, 2016 1:36 PM

Thank you so much for your honesty and bringing this experience forward. It reminds me of a recent incident in the life of a friend, where trust in a dream/vision nearly cost them their physical life, and what Jesus Christ (THE Word) taught them through that experience, and focused them on where their faith should actually be placed. Yes, the things we choose to place our trust in do have power over us. This Christian life is not a dress rehearsal. I’ll post again with that story as soon as possible.

Michael P.
Michael P.
Member
October 7, 2016 1:22 AM

Thanks. I look forward to hearing your testimony as well.

Just for the record, I still remain uncertain about the nature of what I dreamed of, despite it being a year old. Like Vicks said, it could have been subconscious fear. Could have been deception or it still could be something major yet to come. One possibility is that both, my dream and JB’s vision of UVXY at “0” are caused by the same event, and I acted way too quickly and impulsively at the time. If someone else posts a confirming vision about another market segment going down to “0”, then I will know with more certainty. (I do know Z3’ers invest in the same industry as my original investment)

As for the focus of the posted article, I currently have a relatively small position in UVXY myself which I held on to for half a year, and selling at $25 will even get me close to recovering the losses on that one. So I too am seeking guidance on how to trade this.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 12, 2016 8:49 PM

Z3: I have SnP futures (ES) on death watch tonight (-6) as it has moved a hair under that Feb/Post-Brexit TL noted earlier, and if it cuts loose, it could be a hairy couple of days. NQ may break that 50 dma, Nikkei futures are currently down 60, and YM is in about the same position as ES. There really wasn’t much short covering or buy interest on the bounce so far, so its likely putting more pressure on a downward move soon….

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 12, 2016 9:05 PM

Z3: ES now -8.5 and is under that support TL and the 100 dma. Nikkei -155. If they don’t step in and save it tonight to bring it back above, it could get very ugly by tomorrow morning…..

Phanuel
Phanuel
Member
October 12, 2016 9:51 PM

John Smith
ES at -16
Ugly!

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 12, 2016 10:13 PM

John,
Looks like we are going to see some action in the morning.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 13, 2016 6:49 AM

Phanuel and Ed h: Yes agree. Its looking pretty ugly!! Puetz window is now in effect!

Fred UK
Fred UK
Member
October 13, 2016 5:32 AM

Downside break from triangle (starting 8th Sep ’16) could give initial minimum target of S&P 2090ish.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 13, 2016 6:47 AM

Fred: If its quick, I’m looking at around 2000 (maybe), but will re-evaluate where we are late Friday and see.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 16, 2016 10:27 PM
Z3: I’ve mentioned Puetz windows several times before here as a potential marker of a crash year. Steve Puetz studied 8 of the largest crashes up to the Nikkei crash of 1990 and found this window, which he noted to be 6 days before to 3 days after a full moon within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. He found that the odds of that happening by chance would be 1 in 127,000. Since his analysis, other Puetz windows have appeared in 01, 02, and 08 during those crash years. The effect appears to be magnified when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse (blood moon). We now have that setup and the Puetz full moon is tonight 10/16. The blood moon was 9/16/16. We’re running either 2 to 4 weeks behind the key Jewish dates for the crash, likely for reasons stated by Gary earlier, but the Puetz window is now upon us and is also keyed off of lunar cycles, as are Jewish dates…. “There will be signs in the sun and moon, and stars” – Luke 21:25. “What has been is what will be again” – Ecc. 1:9. Those that don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it… I’ve plotted the Puetz windows and key Jewish dates on the below 08 and 87 crash charts. You can see how rapidly the crash unfolds after the Puetz window on both the 08 and 87 charts. Since our fall/winter Puetz window appears to be after the solar eclipse and lunar eclipse, we appear to be closer to 08e. Both 87 and 08 charts show a big drop after the Puetz full moon as shown below. In 08, there were 3 large down days starting on the full moon with the fourth day being a AM low and… Read more »
Joe
Joe
Member
October 16, 2016 11:21 PM

John another key data from 08 crash. Prior to crash, Dollar Index starts going up and silver prices starts coming down.Watch historic data from start of 08 and pattern is clear.
Same patterns in Dollar Index and silver value seems to be repeating now. If so can the crash be far behind?

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 16, 2016 11:47 PM

Joe: Good observations. Dollar has been on a huge bull as of late and PMs have been falling. Silver and gold have also been dropping like a rock as of late. Cash will be king for just a short while, while they search for it to meet contract obligations already on the books, until they hit the wall with massive defaults and the Chinese gold backed Yuan starts getting backers…. If one were to make some bucks on a market crash, PMs would could be on a fire sale at that point.

I forgot to mention that the corresponding main thrust of the crash, if we follow 08, would then look to be going from last week of Oct. into early Nov. with the low sometime 11/9 to 11/11, unless the PPT extends it. This would align with what Mr. Ph and some others are looking for as well with the delay, and it would put the delay on the Jewish cycle at one full lunar cycle (29.2 days). I’m never looking for something bad to happen, but if an “Event” were to happen, according to the 08 crash cycle, it could be timed to occur sometime after this Expry Friday going into the second week of Nov. as a trigger for the larger move down. Best……

Phil- sydney
Phil- sydney
Member
October 18, 2016 12:58 AM

Thanks John
Always worthwhile and appreciated
Phil

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 17, 2016 11:58 AM

John,
Cool stuff!!! My wife and I went down to the beach last night for a stroll. The low tide was lower than I have ever seen it before. It was almost creepy how far back the water had gone. She even joked about if it goes any further we are leaving because it looked like a tsunami retrace. We have a moon phase app and sure enough it was full as can be. My wife teaches first grade and has mentioned the kids start acting up at this same Puetz window time frame. .

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 17, 2016 8:58 PM

Ed h: Yeh, it really impacts human psychology. Emergency rooms are always full on full moons. NZ50 has been crashing lately, which is usually a sign, and our markets appear, and there is typically a good size drop in Oct even in non-crash years. They look very heavy with that post-Brexit TL break, so I’m blaming the delay on manipulation. Maybe they’ll just keep it flat and then crash it on some event soon that no one can see……

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 17, 2016 10:53 PM

John,
I have a feeling with Hillary being behind , even though the MSM tells us she’s ahead, they will keep this facade going into November and then it’s game over if Trump takes it. They will let it drop and blame it on him and all the people who voted for him.

I’m still watching closely but still pretty much on the sidelines ready to jump into traffic the minute I really start seeing some action

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 18, 2016 8:45 PM

Ed h. I think this next drop will be the tell. How quick and severe will mean a lot on how much longer they can keep it up. If it doesn’t drop by this week or first of next, I agree with you. I’m kind of looking for some shocking event we can’t see right now to set it off, and I don’t think they want politics to be viewed as the trigger, regardless of who wins…… NWO knows the best way to avoid a revolt and they eyes of the suspicious will be to keep the stigma off the next president.

vicks
vicks
Member
October 18, 2016 9:47 PM

I think I just got the message about the stock market ‘from the other side’. The decline will be Friday, either this or the next, but I’m leaning more towards next Friday October 28. Drop will be about 6%. Should get us to 2010 in the S&P maybe.

Joseph K.
Member
October 17, 2016 8:54 AM

Absolutely fascinating stuff John!

In your opinion, do you believe the “blast-up” or bounce after the drop we potentially see between now and Wednesday will be to a new high?

Thanks for your thoughts and insights!

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 17, 2016 8:54 PM

Joseph K: I’m not seeing new highs myself. I know some Ewavers are looking for a final 5th, but I believe they’re taking the Brexit low into that analysis, and I think that low should be discarded, IMO. With the length of time on the great rolling top, I don’t think it breaks now, IMO. However, this drop is taking forever, and I do believe they’re protecting it to the extreme. However, they can’t take it higher either. If we don’t see the drop going into Wednesday, then Tuesday/Wed is a potential turn point so maybe we see it going into Friday as another option. I don’t believe we’ll see any bounces exceed the 2147-2142 resistance TL now. If we stay flat until Friday, then we may just have a slow motion roll into the crash as another option. TPTB are between a rock and hard place here, and they’re not doing us any favors………

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 15, 2016 11:29 AM

Z3: Good news for the bears is that Friday’s pop up failed early and it actually closed well below the post-Brexit TL identified before, and the back-kissing of that TL was completed Friday (see below daily ES chart). Failure of the bulls to keep it up is a major deal. Many are likely frustrated, but I see the action of the last few days and weeks as very bearish ever since the breaks of that contracting triangle and the post-Brexit TL. NZ50 has already dumped, NK turning down, and DAX appears to be setting up for another very large move down. I think the die has been cast, we’re in H2, and we should see some good movement down very soon with this break back below that critical TL. MACD is on a very firm sell signal, and they usually pop it once after that signal shows up on the daily to keep the shorts off balance, and that occurred Friday. Best…..

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 15, 2016 6:37 PM

John,
We need to break the 200MA 2068 that looks like your TL with the diamonds on it. Then it’s game on . Did you read what Yellen said on Friday? Woah!! Basically admitted that all this QE has done nothing and could leave a permanent scare on the economy. Time for high pressure economy.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 15, 2016 7:07 PM
Yeh, saw what Yellen said. She’s probably trying to get a few things out in the open, so it doesn’t come back on her later. The 200 dma on ES daily would be down around 2050 (purple line in 2 TDs), and it was the initial stop on the Brexit dump. I believe its still the most likely H2 low target. The line with diamonds is likely a weaker support I ran from the highs between the Aug. 015 and Jan drops. Remember, there is a 9 TD turn point around Tues/Wed next week, Mon-Wed represents the last 3 days of the Puetz window. Since they left us with a very weak close Friday below the TL, my best guess is a slam down starting Sunday night futures to Tues or Wed am, and then a retrace back to options expry if we drop quick and hit the 200 dma or lower by that point. If we drop slower, then the next turn point I’d look at would be around Options Expry. Friday 10/22, so I will look at speed (momentum), time, and price (all 3) before making any decisions to flip some shorts. In 87, there was NO bounce after the Puetz window started. In 08, there was a hard down 3 days after the Puetz full moon, which would be Mon-Wed in our case, and then only a very sharp 2 day retracement before the real crash, which is why I’m not touching my crash stash and may not stay in long trades after H2 very long…. We’re running past the key Jewish dates, but as Gary mentioned earlier, we may be on 10 day delay sequence. However, we appear to be lock stock an barrel on par with the Puetz window marker for past crashes. I’ll try… Read more »
John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 15, 2016 7:19 PM

Correction – In 87, there was 3 hard down days after the Puetz full moon and then only a small about 95 point DOW bounce before the event unfolded.

Phanuel
Phanuel
Member
October 13, 2016 10:32 PM

Dear Z3,
We are waiting patiently for the second hangman which has taken forever. However, Trump keeps repeating we will have our Brexit on November 8. I think he may be “prophesying”. If this second hangman keeps getting delayed and we find our self close to Election Day, we have to think “Brexit #2” and position accordingly. Of course, the second hangman could happen tomorrow and this will be null and void.

I was thinking about the dream on 9/26, and the two times given (6:30 am and 8;00 am). Usually, an hour in my dreams is reliably one month. I initially assumed the 8 day count, but in the other 8 and 10 day count dreams there weren’t two specific times. In those dreams, the time was either 8am or 10am the next day. However, in this dream there was a 6-6:30 am time (much closer to 6:30) and an 8 am time. So let’s be conservative and assume 1.5 months, which takes us to November 9 and 10 (the days after the election). Trump keeps saying “we will have our Brexit on November 8”. If we don’t drop tomorrow, I believe the 2 week timeline is negated, and we need to seriously consider this new interpretation. Some are expecting a drop on October 27-28. I just don’t believe the “elite” will telecast their plans like that, so we should be very cautious. I have also seen FAZ in November, and it was no where near 10,000. Just some thoughts to pray about and consider.

Shalom

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 13, 2016 11:20 PM

Mr. Ph: That could be referring to the larger crash (Wave #3 down), after H2 and the retrace, as the early November timing would be perfect assuming a 10 day delay to the normal Trishi 26 crash dates of the past. It has all the look of an 87 style crash when it goes down big, but that is just a feeling I’m starting to get with all of this protection over just a minor 20-30 point ES drop… They don’t want to let it get down to Brexit or the 1800 lows, since they likely know they may not be able to sustain it, and I believe they’ll want to pull the plug on the real crash on the date/time of their choosing…

As long as the post-Brexit TL holds as shown on the below chart I just posted, I think we’re locked and loaded into H2 myself, and these delays should be of a minor nature. We should find out soon. If that post-Brexit break does not hold and price closes above, we could be potentially in for a much longer delay, however. Keep the interpretations coming…. Best….

Chris M
Chris M
Member
October 14, 2016 7:02 AM

You may need to read the FAZ prospectus a few times. It is very possible to see 10,000 a share. Go watch Movie The Big Short a few times. Then re read the prospects again and ask the question why do the top ten holders own theses shares that are all financial institutions. Their is a lot more to this ETF than meets the eye.

Micheal
Micheal
Member
October 14, 2016 7:58 PM

Chris you are right. Looking into their holdings and sectors it is the Big Short in real life.
Index Top Ten Holdings %
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 7.13
JPMorgan Chase & Co 5.89
Wells Fargo & Co 5.63
Visa Inc 3.68
Bank of America Corp 3.55
Citigroup Inc 3.24
MasterCard Inc 2.21
Simon Property Group Inc 1.74
US Bancorp 1.70
Chubb Ltd 1.57
Index Sector Weightings %
Banks 26.46
Real Estate Investment Trusts 22.19
Insurance 15.12
Diversified Financial Services 11.06
IT Services 10.58
Capital Markets 9.12
Consumer Finance 3.69
Professional Services 0.56
Real Estate Management & Development 0.54
Media 0.32
Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 0.21
Internet Software & Services 0.15

Index data as of 6/30/2016. Index sector weightings and top holdings are subject to change.

TAJ
TAJ
Member
October 15, 2016 7:49 AM

M, could you tell to total capital value, total outstanding shares multiplied by the price? Thanks

Joe
Joe
Member
October 14, 2016 10:22 PM

Phanuel. Had a vision within a dream on 15th [Saturday] morning.
There was a calendar showing month of September [year not known] and date 11th was marked in red. Does it mean we have 11 more days for a repeat of 2001 type market crash?

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 15, 2016 10:14 AM

Joe: Sept. 11 was right after the first real drop that started 9/9 and completed Sunday night 9/11 to 9/12 since the top formed. Maybe it was a warning that the drop had already started 9/11 of this year as one explanation….. Since that date, we have not hit new or close to past highs on the SnP and Dow…. Best..

Phanuel
Phanuel
Member
October 15, 2016 7:02 AM

Hi Joe
I’m confused about the dates. Could you please further explain? 15th of which month?

Shalom

Joe
Joe
Member
October 15, 2016 7:26 AM

Phanuel Today 15 th. Around 10Hrs ahead of you

Phanuel
Phanuel
Member
October 15, 2016 8:46 AM

Okay I see. It seems to be pointing to a significant event on a future September 11th.

Shalom

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 10, 2016 10:56 PM

Z3: We’re still hitting and following that upper rail down (see below ES chart update with lower highs), and this delay has surprised me to say the least. I have comfort its coming, but just delayed. TPTB likely know that any down draft at this point will enter into dangerous territory. Price on the 120 min. ES chart has proceed all the way to the apex of that contracting triangle (amazing – you don’t see that very often).

I would agree with what Mr. Ph and James posted earlier on timing for H2. Nasdaq, Dow, and Nikkei are not dipping like ES is tonight, and they probably need to break their 50 dmas before things really get rolling, but the -5.25 in ES futures and drop under the lower rail tonight is good news. As indicated a few days ago, NZ50 has already crashed down from its right-hand shoulder high, and I consider it a leading indicator. This is a looks like a very eerie calm before the storm to me. Best…

Joseph K.
Member
October 11, 2016 7:48 AM

As always, thank you for the analysis John!

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 11, 2016 10:19 AM

Joseph K: Your welcome. ES now down 24, and its looking good so far. Its broke under the daily lows of the last 9 days. Dow futures are hitting that lower rail now, but it hasen’t broken yet, and NQ still above its 50 dma, but we’re chipping away at it. We’re also into the Puetz window now (within 6 days of the full moon to 3 TDs after), and as posted before, can show up at the beginning of a very large scale decline or crash…. Best….

Joseph K.
Member
October 11, 2016 11:24 AM
John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 11, 2016 2:17 PM

Good article. Breakouts from the type of contracting triangle formation we’ve been in plus the 2 month rolling top should be explosive. When we break the TL extending up from the Brexit lows, we should really see some downside movement, IMO. Its ironic that Yom Kippur is tomorrow and we haven’t even entered into the heart of the Puetz window yet. Maybe we waterfall to the bottom of H2 before Yom Kippur is over, and if we ease on down, I can see Friday 10/14 as a potential turn. Middle of next week is another potential turn point if we don’t hit some important support levels before then. In the grand scheme of things, I see this as the start of the coming crash now, and down appears to be the primary trend now, IMO. There is finally rain on the African plain.

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 11, 2016 9:58 PM

John,
The bonds are selling off with the market dropping. The bond yields are going up on a big down day. This is not a good sign for people going long in the markets. Not Z3 crowd but most every working person who has a 401k or a Sep Ira plan, or retired folks with money saved in mutual funds. When this bubble blows they will get destroyed. Please anyone out there who has friends in this situation please warn them. They will probably not listen but at least you warned them.

I sold some of my shorts today with some good gains. Saw Vix up about 20% so got out of Uvxy options .

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 11, 2016 11:37 PM

Ed h: I think we can start to hear the footsteps of foreign investors fleeing US treasuries, bonds, stocks, etc. That is probably why the SEC was having large brokerage houses force their money market funds into those backed by US bonds/treasuries. We’re going to face a major confidence and paper goods crash as well as stocks with funds flowing into the new reserve currency and other safe havens. I don’t know which one will precipitate the other, but its likely will make 08 look like a picnic by comparison. I really don’t see what people think they have to gain by staying long US stocks here, other than its made us a lot of money in the past, so it must be right for the future, eh??? Just don’t see it.

Good job on making gains. I’ve held all my shorts waiting for a break of that Feb to Brexit low trendline, which ES just bounced off of today. When that one goes, we should see our larger H2 move down and the die will be cast. If it continues to bounce into Friday, it’ll give me an opportunity to pick up some more high Oct. and Nov. crash puts…. These little 30 point down moves will pale by comparison with what’s coming, IMO. Best.

Chris A.
Member
October 11, 2016 2:28 PM

Thanks as always for the insights John.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 7, 2016 8:57 AM

Z3: Good news. They just spiked up ES 10 points and now down 8 pts. They typically target the short stops one last time before they let it drop, so its looking good on that end. Nikkei down 185, and NZ50 has been crashing for the last 3 days, so all the conditions appear right for the start of H2. Lets hope its not another fire drill !! Buckle up!

Joseph K.
Member
October 7, 2016 10:37 AM

That is good news – thanks John for analysis.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 13, 2016 10:31 PM
Z3: I really thought it was going to cut loose today after the break of the post-Brexit trend-line last night, but another test of patience was dished out in trading today. The break still looks solid, and price has only back-kissed that post-Brexit TL as of now (see circle on daily chart below) and tonight in futures (you notice we’re not blasting up tonight, so Its looking like that important break is going to stick, and will not look for most of the larger portion of H2 action next week or possibly later on Friday (assuming the back-kiss sticks) and it doesn’t close above that TL……. I’m an engineer by trade and are always looking for patterns of symmetry and common price points, represented by support/resistance TLs as shown on below chart. Its interesting to point out that the LH shoulder going into the top is precisely 31 TDs from the center, matching the 31 TDs from the center to the 10/11 break down from that contracting triangle pattern pointed out earlier. Patterns like this tell me we’re into the making the RH side of the drop from that pattern. I know most of us have been looking for a rapid waterfall type H2, but today’s action (with PPT action), could be telling us that the decline could be slower and take more of the shape of the climb up from the Brexit lows, but I still think we’ll see some climax drop days before we can consider H2 being close to being finished now that the primary trend is still down, IMO. MACD is very firmly on a sell and this may be the final backkiss before it starts rolling. I’ll likely use tomorrow am as an opportunity to pick up some more high Oct. puts and W3 Nov.… Read more »
John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 13, 2016 10:32 PM

will now look for most of the larger H2 drop to begin next week or late Friday.

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 13, 2016 11:43 PM

John,
Today was a big fake. I went just a little short this morning on snp calls on SDS went up 45% in no time flat. Got busy with work and checked back about noon and was down 2% . My mistake for not putting in sell limits. Looked like a good day to let it ride. Did not enter anything at EOD. Waiting to see if I’m a bear or a bull in the morning. What kind of engineer are you?
My dad was chemical and I went for mechanical.
My buddy went for civil and now has a Cush job with cal trans doing freeway overpass designs
Ended up going into contracting instead.

John Smith
John Smith
Member
October 14, 2016 10:19 AM

Yeh, it appears they were targeting the daytraders mostly (why I don’t day trade index futures). I’ll have to start taking profits soon. Today 10/14 looks like it could be an important turn day to me especially if we can close under that post Brexit TL as indicated.

I’m Civil and Mechanical, and I specialize in water. I was the #3 engineer on Calif’s largest water treatment plant, and lead the design teams for 3 very big pump stations in NOLA (second largest pumping facilities in the US). I was considering Caltrans just out of school, but didn’t want to go structural. They have a great pension. Best…

Ed h
Ed h
Member
October 12, 2016 5:19 AM

Z3. An article I found on CNBC. The snp has experienced a technical term called “An inside week”. It means a lower high and a higher low than the week before. The snp just did it 2 weeks in a row.

This has only occurred 3 other times. Yes you guessed it 07/08 and 2000. The markets are ready for a big swing in either direction right now. Positive earnings report could cause a breakout, or negative report could cause a blowout. We will see.

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